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NL6, 6-max, TP vs river shove

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Zanardi1
Joined: 04.01.2010

Pacific, $0.03/$0.06 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $6.13 (102.2 bb)
BB: $3.25 (54.2 bb)
UTG: $6 (100 bb)
MP: $6.95 (115.8 bb)
Hero (CO): $6 (100 bb)
BTN: $4.99 (83.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K Q
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.18, BTN calls $0.18, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.45) Q 9 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.27, BTN calls $0.27

Turn: ($0.99) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.57, BTN calls $0.57

River: ($2.13) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $3.97 and is all-in, Hero folds

Results: $2.13 pot ($0.12 rake)
Final Board: Q 9 4 4 A
Hero mucked K Q and lost (-$1.02 net)
BTN mucked and won $2.01 ($0.99 net)

The villain is 72/0 from 19 hands, Afq: 18.8%

I double barrel for value when the ugliest card comes on the river. Here I am pretty sure I am beat, but I am not sure about his sizing. Is it value or he bets big on a scary card? I tend to think that it's for value, but other opinions are welcome.


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7 replies
xin1575
Joined: 22.10.2015

I think I'd play this the exact same way you did. It's probably fine to bet/fold the River too. This seems like the classic passive player suddenly bets/raises the River, which almost always means he's got the nuts. You only have 1 pair, and there are a ton of hands that a 72 VPIP player could have and have you beat.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Vs a passive villain I prefer bf on river. As played we can fold.


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CPallo
Joined: 12.04.2012

Nasty river card here. However, your villain seems to be some sort of a passive fish, so I think you could bet/fold like 1/3 of pot here. He can have some Ax, but also worse Kx there. Not always flush/Ax.


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MJPerry
Joined: 03.10.2011

I think a small bet of 1/5 pot or something would be nice here. Someone this passive isn't going to recognise it as a blocker bet and bluff, nor will they want to fold their T9o or QJ for such a small price.

Once he shoves it's an easy fold.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Originally posted by Zanardi1
...
I double barrel for value when the ugliest card comes on the river. Here I am pretty sure I am beat, but I am not sure about his sizing. Is it value or he bets big on a scary card? I tend to think that it's for value, but other opinions are welcome.

Ok, this post may not apply optimally to the micros, but reasoning still works. It always does (unless I screwed up in the details below, but that would be another story).

IMO, you need to disabuse yourself from this line of thought - or at least use any conclusion correctly.

Bluffs should be much more likely according to game theory than when facing a moderate bet.

But according to the same game theory, in order to maintain status quo, you should still call less. Paradoxical? Actually, no, since he needs to succeed 2/3 (getting 2:4) to break even. It may still sound paradoxical, but if you nip off only 1/3 of those with you bluff catchers, you break even. It is then a Nash Equilibrium and you'll both be unexploitable. (Call 100% or 0% with your bluff catchers, and you get the same result, namely break even, the difference being that you are now horribly exploitable with either of those frequencies.)

When faced with a possible river bluff (as a straight bet, raises are different), pot odds dictate.


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zoty79
Joined: 31.03.2010

Everybody said everything. I would just bet flop and turn bigger! You wnat to get more money in they pot!


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ovatsuG21
Joined: 03.05.2009

Originally posted by zoty79
Everybody said everything. I would just bet flop and turn bigger! You wnat to get more money in they pot!

This!!

You can bet like 3/4 pot on flop and turn and a 1/4 or even 1/5 pot on the river.


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