SH Rush Trips Min Raise river, value bet?

I agree that 14/9 reg wont be re-raise shoving OTR without nuts. Well played.

Can he do that on river with AQ?
I think he has many Qx in his range and with AQ he may think he has you beaten...

Originally posted by nitrol
Can he do that on river with AQ?

I don't think so, even bad nl10 regs should realise what's going on when they get raised on this river card.

Then we should just call the river donk

Originally posted by nitrol
Then we should just call the river donk

Do you hate value?

No, but why raise if we will fold?

Originally posted by nitrol
No, but why raise if we will fold?

That's surely not a serious question? We raise to get called by worse. Sometimes we get 3-bet by better. That's just how it works.

It's a nit at NL10, so we're never getting bluffed which means we're basically never getting raised (he needs to have A4s, 33 or 99 to do that). However, he's never folding Qx to essentially a minraise.

Originally posted by MJPerry

Originally posted by nitrol
No, but why raise if we will fold?

That's surely not a serious question? We raise to get called by worse. Sometimes we get 3-bet by better. That's just how it works.

It's a nit at NL10, so we're never getting bluffed which means we're basically never getting raised (he needs to have A4s, 33 or 99 to do that). However, he's never folding Qx to essentially a minraise.

Exactly this, just because there is a small chance we get reraised doens't mean we shouldn't value raise here.

What worse hands will this tight villain call after our turn x?

All the Qx that are in his range like MJPerry said. (AQ, KQ, QJ, QT maybe)

Originally posted by nitrol
What worse hands will this tight villain call after our turn x?

NL10 nit isn't going to fold Qx getting around 4/1. I don't think hero's turn check has much impact on that.

Originally posted by livethelife7

Originally posted by MJPerry

Originally posted by nitrol
No, but why raise if we will fold?

That's surely not a serious question? We raise to get called by worse. Sometimes we get 3-bet by better. That's just how it works.

It's a nit at NL10, so we're never getting bluffed which means we're basically never getting raised (he needs to have A4s, 33 or 99 to do that). However, he's never folding Qx to essentially a minraise.

Exactly this, just because there is a small chance we get reraised doens't mean we shouldn't value raise here.

Getting reraised is not the issue. The issue is whether we are a 55% favorite when called. (The extra 5% is a buffer for villain actually really (yes!) bluffing us out.) I'd personally (if I were the villain) have a nice assortment of suited 4x and a couple of unsuited as well I this spot. I'd be calling with these and actually be folding QT/QJ. KQ/AQ I'd probably not play this way up to the river, and if I did, I wouldn't fire river. But that's me.

Originally posted by MJPerry

Originally posted by nitrol
What worse hands will this tight villain call after our turn x?

NL10 nit isn't going to fold Qx getting around 4/1. I don't think hero's turn check has much impact on that.

Still cannot convince me that after the way the hand is played we have a reason to raise/fold.
Plus Qx may not play the hand this way, or may not make a nearly pot donk on a paired board.
I would like a coach to see the hand as it is important to know what is the right play here.

Originally posted by YohanN7
Getting reraised is not the issue. The issue is whether we are a 55% favorite when called. (The extra 5% is a buffer for villain actually really (yes!) bluffing us out.) I'd personally (if I were the villain) have a nice assortment of suited 4x and a couple of unsuited as well I this spot. I'd be calling with these and actually be folding QT/QJ. KQ/AQ I'd probably not play this way up to the river, and if I did, I wouldn't fire river. But that's me.

Fortunately you're not the villain. Villain is an NL5 player with a 14% VPIP and doesn't like folding top pair because that's how they roll.

Isn't this same villain that will fold his tp to river aggression?

Originally posted by nitrol
Isn't this same villain that will fold his tp to river aggression?

Weak tp maybe, strong tp probably not. I think we have a +ev raise/fold here.