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Bottom full house facing river bet - Can I raise for value?

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xin1575
Joined: 22.10.2015

BB: $15.22
UTG: $9.90 Only played 2 hands...no stats available
CO: $8.55
Hero (BTN): $9.60
SB: $10.65

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has 4♣ 4♠

UTG raises to $0.30, fold, Hero calls $0.30, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.75, 2 players) Q♦ K♠ 4♥
UTG bets $0.30, Hero raises to $0.80, UTG calls $0.50
I raise for value here since this board is very likely to hit villain's range, plus I want to charge for any draws.

Turn: ($2.35, 2 players) J♦
UTG checks, Hero checks
I feel like this was a mistake after reviewing this hand. I could be able to value bet this Turn. Since the Jack also likely hits the villain's range, It's possible he could have 2 pair now and we could get stacks in now. Does anybody have any thoughts on this? Betting is better than slowplaying?

River: ($2.35, 2 players) K♦
UTG bets $1.50, Hero ?
Since I've under represented my hand, can I raise for value? After he called my flop raise, I put him on a range of AT-AK, KT-KQ, QT-QJ, and JT. I discounted QQ and KK because I would expect to get reraised on the flop, and I discount JJ since I doubt he's calling a flop raise with that. My thinking is that if I were to raise the river, is he calling me with anything other than a King? Probably not...the only Kings in his range are AK, KQ, KJ, and KT and I don't block anything.

What's everyone's thoughts here? Just call the river? Raise/Fold? Raise/Call?


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7 replies
MJPerry
Joined: 03.10.2011

Turn check was a definite mistake. It improves his range but he's still likely way behind you.

On the river, you lose to very few combos - 3x QQs, 6x KQ, 1x KK, 1x AdTd. I'll discount Td9d and KJ, though they are possible.

On the other hand, you beat AK (which will definitely call a raise), AdXd (which will definitely call a raise), AT/T9 (which might call a raise). In short, I think you can raise.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

On turn we should make a solid bet. Villain can call with various hands that are behind.
On river you can always take the safe route and just call, but if you raise, you should not fold, imo.


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Afulibador
Joined: 21.08.2009

I would bet this turn.
As played, I think u can raise all in on river. He can have good strong hands in range (that he ll hate folding) and ll be behind.


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Also a raise OTT for me for value. If he would call that one, the river would make a lot more clear whether he has the goods or not. You can keep discounting some hands by checking OTT, however, is that your goal when having a strong hand and there are a lot of value opportunities?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

We cannot raise OTT as villain checks to us. You mean bet?...


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008
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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

As others already have said, you should bet OTT. You can raise river but calling is totally fine also.


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