KQo facing a large bet on the river

Villain is polarised, so this isn't AK much - villain is too loose to flat that. KK is also all but out (rarely perhaps as a weird trap).

That leaves just TT, 44 and KT raising you for value. If you think the villain could attack you with QJ here - and even if its the only bluff hand in his range - you've got 50% equity and should call for sure.

Villain could also reasonably do this other bluffs like weaker Khxh hands that he decided to turn into a bluff on the turn after info-raising the flop. In reality our equity is probably a little higher than 50% depending on how spewy a range the villain might get pushy with, although 54s and 55 (hell, I've raised here with 55 before on the flop, just to test if you'll fold to a set rep on a dry board) did make it - if he is spewy enough to bluff those though you call every day of the week.

Originally posted by Jaissica
If he is spewy enough to bluff those though you call every day of the week.

That's the thing. We have no further info on the villain. Do we call here against an unknow?

Without any reads on the villian I would fold here. If the villian bluff correctly, it is a call for sure, but NL2 rarely bluff like this, even with QJ in my experience.

We do not have 4 streets of value with our hand vs an unknown villain. I will fold here.

Without 4 streets of Value I ain't puttin' any dime into this pot either

I don't see villain check raising us as a bluff very often on this board. He has sets and KT. There is no many cards that will help us on later streets. Fold is ok.

Even if villain bluffs correctly, this is a fold. Very few bluffs (certainly not all 16 QJ) should take that line. GTO set aside, the board is, as Lassie says, not very inviting for a bluff versus our range.

Originally posted by YohanN7
as Lassie says

Lassie is a dog

And she says little Tommy has fallen down the well.

Without more info, I would fold in this spot. Even though you have top pair with a good kicker, it's still only one pair.

What do you guys think about the change of betsizing from turn to river?

Originally posted by kriko92
What do you guys think about the change of betsizing from turn to river?

1.
Hmm, I have the nuts, I bet turn small so he would call and since he called he will have something and hopefully he calls my huge bet otr.

2.
I x/r flop with my monsterdraw, bet turn smaller because I didn't hit. If I psb river he will fold for sure.

3.
I raise my villain otf and when he calls I put him on a flush draw. Since draws didn't complete OTR my KJo must be nuts and I bet big.

There is possible thought processes for villain. I think his change in bet size can mean a lot of things and we cannot analyse it more deeply without proper info on villain.

We should closely observe every oppponent. The change in betsize can mean very strong hand, it can mean a draw missed andhe is trying to bluff us out of the pot.
I would fold river.

In general changing betsize usually means change in hand strenght. There's not much that changed on the river though, only A3 improved and the draws missed. From the options given by La55i I think he second one is the most likely, first one rare and third just doesn't work. Bluffs often take this betsizing line and villain doesn't seem like a nit so far so I think we can call this and try to exploit him. If we're not that sure, it's perfectly fine to fold KQ as it blocks some of his missed draws.

I found this hand when I was analyzing old sessions, and when I saw that I called this river without seeing/remembering the opponent's cards I felt like it's a mistake. Turns out the villain had 44. Happy to know it's a fold.