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SH AA, Facing Flop Raise in Squeezed Pot

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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): $10.39 (103.9 bb)
BB: $10 (100 bb)
UTG: $25.65 (256.5 bb)
MP: $6.05 (60.5 bb)
CO: $10 (100 bb)
BTN: $11.59 (115.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A A
UTG raises to $0.30, MP calls $0.30, CO folds, BTN calls $0.30, Hero raises to $1.60, BB folds, UTG calls $1.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.90) J 9 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.10, UTG raises to $5.60, Hero raises to $8.79 and is all-in, UTG calls $3.19

Turn: ($21.48) J (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($21.48) 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Preflop: Standard.

Flop: Hit an overpair on a relatively dry board and then 34/29 (39 hands) decided to raise. Could I ever fold? I mean, I will see JJ and 99 quite often, but also KK-QQ and occasionally something like AJ or KQ are possible.


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10 replies
YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

No choice really. Not deep enough to just call either. Serious read needed to get away.


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MisterSnS
Joined: 09.11.2011

I wouldn't get too creative with his raising-range here. Fact is that flop and turnraises in 3bet/squz-pots are extremely strong, turnraises a bit more. I would probably go broke here too because I have AA and villain is rather unknown. But looking at it now it's hard to believe he would raise QQ here for value since we can easily have KK+, and also JJ


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I do not think J9x is a dry flop. It is connected.
Can villain bluff raise you pre with AJ?


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Originally posted by nitrol
Can villain bluff raise you pre with AJ?

Hard to say, but I wouldn't think so.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

99,JJ-KK -> It is already +EV, we have over 60%. Add some AJ and random bluffs and this is a clear shove. Well played.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

QQ-KK are not always there as he can push them pre.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Originally posted by nitrol
QQ-KK are not always there as he can push them pre.

I think pushing QQ pre is not that likely. 99,JJ are not always there as he can fold them pre, sometimes.

You have a good point but I don't think it makes this less profitable.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

JJ-99 are right there in his calling range!


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Yes, JJ-99 are also a bit my fear in this case. I don't know, If we make the hand combos, would we not overrule villain's value hands?


       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    19.37%  17.37%   2.00% { JJ+, 99, AJs }
SB     80.63%  78.63%   2.00% { AhAs }

Let me know what you think.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Here is a range for you: QQ-JJ,99,KdKh,KdKs,KdKc,AhJd,AsJd,AsJh,AcJd,AcJh,AcJs

Villain will shove another AA pre. I believe he will not shove QQ so it is there. I put half of the combos of KK because sometimes villain can shove KK. And then there is half of the combos of AJo. There might be too much AJ but this way we get 61%. If we take AJ out and leave 99,JJ,QQ and half of KK we still have 56%. No matter how we twist this it is still a profitable shove imo.


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