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[6-max] Pretty dry board, should we fold trip Aces against AI on this river?

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PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 157 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, Hands: 28)
CO: 72 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 28.57, Hands: 32)
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 16.13, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
BB: 97.5 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
UTG: 250 BB (VPIP: 34.38, PFR: 34.38, 3Bet Preflop: 18.18, Hands: 33)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♠ A♥

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 4♣ 6♥ A♠
BB checks, Hero bets 4.5 BB, BB calls 4.5 BB

Turn: (15.5 BB, 2 players) A♣
BB checks, Hero bets 9 BB, BB calls 9 BB

River: (33.5 BB, 2 players) 9♠
BB bets 81 BB and is all-in, Hero ???

Spoiler

Hero calls 81 BB
BB shows 9♥ A♦ (Full House, Aces full of Nines)
(Pre 28%, Flop 16%, Turn 14%)
Hero shows T♠ A♥ (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 72%, Flop 84%, Turn 86%)
BB wins 188.5 BB

My Thoughts: Im aways tempted to bluff catch on this situations, specially on such a dry board. Villain seems kinda fishy, limping the few hands i saw him playing, also, not full-stack. Its possible that he holds 44, 66, 99 or Ax's. Fold?


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8 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Xc, xc, donk AI is strong on nl2...
And as there are better hands possible you should fold.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Villain should 3bet many of the higher Ax pre. I don't see him calling flop and turn with 99. Most likely he would have raised sets OTF or OTT. Other Ax hands are pretty well blocked. I believe he is a fish and running a bad bluff here. I think calling here is ok. Imo we can call almost always when villains line doesn't make sense because it is often a bluff. Also shoving river is quite polarized move imo.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Easy fold. The decisive factor is that he violently overbets the pot. Don't ever lure yourself into using inverted logic (that would have it that such a big bet must be a bluff). You'll soon be broke.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Originally posted by nitrol
Xc, xc, donk AI is strong on nl2...

This is true but when villain shoves it is quite polarized imo. Fish do bluff in stupid spots sometimes and considering his flop and turn line I think we can call also. Or do you strongly disagree with me?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I will disagree here. In a recent coaching it was said that whenever villain uses a strange line, it is more often for value.
What Ax we beat, that will push river? A8-A7?
C'mon, he will gladly xc them.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Okay. I think I'm changing my mind here and say it is better to fold :)

It is true that we don't beat many other Ax and he probably call OTT with complete air.


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Difficult man. However, I might have talked myself into a call here as well. Not sure.


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marsa08
Joined: 30.01.2014

Vs this almost 3x potsize donk jam and the player being fish I am always folding this hand. If the donk was closer to pot size then I could consider calling.


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