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88, overpair vs donk all-in on flop

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Yuris125
Joined: 16.03.2009

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iPoker Game 7017461153 / Tournament
Table Laagri, 817762429 - 2016-04-06 20:57:51
Blinds : 0.01/0.02
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6 players
UTG (0.83)
MP (1.08)
[CO] Hero (2.03)
BU (3.17)
SB (0.78)
BB (1.59)

Hero 8♦ 8♠ Initial Pot: 0.03

UTG folds
MP raises to 0.04
Hero calls 0.04
BU folds
SB calls 0.03
BB folds
### FLOP ### 6♥ 2♥ 5♠ Pot: 0.14
SB is All in
UTG folds
Hero calls 0.74
### TURN ### 2♠ Pot: 1.62
### RIVER ### 9♠ Pot: 1.62

Villain is unknown

I don't see sets played this way, and want to believe 43 is not in villain's range. It's not impossible for him to have a bigger overpair, but I expect him to show up with a draw most of the time. Do you think this is a good call?


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12 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

We cannot call here. There are better overpairs and hands with a lot of equity.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

This is a fold on the flop. Villain has sets, better overpairs and maybe strong draws here.


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Yuris125
Joined: 16.03.2009
Spoiler

SB shows 7♣ 4♦

Guess this is the bottom of his range?

Against this range:
TT-22,AhKh,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,A6s,87s,74s,43s,A6o,87o,74o,43o
I have 48% equity, and by my count need 46% to call. Is this range too wide?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Villain is unknown. We cannot assign him that wide range from the very beginning.
Now that you have called and seen his cards - make a note.


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Yuris125
Joined: 16.03.2009

I most certainly did :)
Yeah I see what you mean, I'm getting crushed by this range:
TT-99,66-55,22,AhKh,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,A6s,87s,A6o


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Well that looks better but I don't think normal villain would shove flop with A6o or A6s. Or just a nut FD like AhTh. AhKh and AhQh he would have probably squeezed pre flop.

I would say even more realistic range would be 99-TT,66,55,22,8h7h. Maybe add AhJh,KhQh,JhTh because he is shortstack and he could shove just a flush draw. But as you can see you don't have much equity.

In this case villain was bad and you won but it doesn't mean you will win in similar spots in the long run. :)


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Add some big Ax and the range is there.


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elsjorro
Joined: 11.12.2010

lol at that hand, would not have expect to see that. Still think it is a fold, unless you got this kind of reads at someone. But still then it's very close just as u describe.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

You don't need to analyze this situation, except noting that someone bet a million into a nothing pot and you have a small pair. In particular, it is impossible to put an insane player on a range, so don't try.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

So will you fold here?


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Yes, I am folding. But that fact should not be taken as advice by anyone. You are necessarily on your own when you try out mind-reading (what does villain do this with?). It is to me beyond logical reasoning. It would be insanely stupid to think about an old forum thread when this pops up in real life. Who knows why some idiot (that would be me in this case) had in mind when he wrote "fold, they always have nuts here"?


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

I might add some facts that apply whatever. If he does this with overcards, small pairs and draws, he still has considerable equity. Exactly what that equity is can be checked out in Eqilab. Help to help yourself, so to say. What his range really is your business to guess. Guess it and going to Equilab is better than asking in the forum for someone else to guess.


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