Villain is an unknown
OTT: When villain x/raise, I leant towards this being a semi-bluff as I felt most players would have x/raised 2pr+ OTF on this texture, although not impossible for him to x/c F and x/raise T with 22/66/77/67 I felt that this would be les likely. I also felt that it was unlikely for villain to hold 8T or even 8Ts since it is UTG vs BB (but maybe I give villain too much credit for good hand selection as an unknown)
Should this just be a bet/fold?
I felt that since villains range is more heavily weighted towards semi bluffs I should call and see what happen OTR with the plan to mostly check behind. I felt that villain can have JJ a lot since this line would make sense. I felt that 3-betting would only get villain to fold worse hands or bluffs and continue with 2pr+ and strong draws.
If we include 2pr+ type hands that x/c'd F and x/raised T:
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Board: 2s9d7dJs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 44.19% 44.19% 0.00% { AdAc }
BB 55.81% 55.81% 0.00% { QQ, JdJh, JdJc, JhJc, 9h9s, 9h9c, 9s9c, 7h7s, 7h7c, 7s7c, 2d2h, 2d2c, 2h2c, T8s, 86s, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, As9s, Ks9s, Qs9s, Jh9h, Jc9c, Ts9s, Kd8d, Qd8d, 9s8s, 9h7h, 9s7s, 9c7c, 6d5d }
If we exclude 97s/22/99/77 (we expect them to almost always x/raise):
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Board: 2s9d7dJs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 75.38% 75.38% 0.00% { AdAc }
BB 24.62% 24.62% 0.00% { QQ, JdJh, JdJc, JhJc, KTs, QTs, T8s, 86s, AsKs, AsQs, KdQd, KsQs, AhJh, KdJd, KhJh, KcJc, QdJd, QhJh, QcJc, AsTs, JdTd, JhTh, JcTc, As9s, Ks9s, Qs9s, Jh9h, Jc9c, Ts9s, As8s, Kd8d, Ks8s, Qd8d, Qs8s, 9s8s, As7s, Ks7s, 8s7s, As6s, 7s6s, As5s, 7s5s, 6d5d, 6s5s, As4s, As3s, KTo, QTo, AhJd, AhJc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, KdJh, KdJc, KhJd, KhJc, KsJd, KsJh, KsJc, KcJd, KcJh, QdJh, QdJc, QhJd, QhJc, QsJd, QsJh, QsJc, QcJd, QcJh, JdTh, JdTs, JdTc, JhTd, JhTs, JhTc, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs }
OTR: now that I improve I beat a lot of his value hands like sets and 2pr that he might have been x/raising me with.
Should this be a check behind or bet/fold since villain is never x/raise bluffing me and he probably just x/c's all worse value hands on this river? I feel that it is personally.
PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 113.6 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
SB: 104.2 BB (VPIP: 11.76, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
BB: 118.8 BB
Hero (UTG): 119.6 BB
MP: 100.6 BB (VPIP: 53.33, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 16)
CO: 368 BB (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♦ A♣
Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB
Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) 2♠ 9♦ 7♦
BB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, BB calls 4 BB
Turn: (14.4 BB, 2 players) J♠
BB checks, Hero bets 6.8 BB, BB raises to 17 BB, Hero calls 10.2 BB
River: (48.4 BB, 2 players) A♠
BB checks, Hero bets 23.2 BB, BB raises to 94.8 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 71.6 BB
Spoiler
BB shows 8♠ 5♠ (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 20%, Flop 23%, Turn 34%)
Hero shows A♦ A♣ (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 80%, Flop 77%, Turn 66%)
BB wins 228.2 BB