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NL5 6-max - AA UTG v BB - Topset - wet board

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muel294
Joined: 06.06.2009

Villain is an unknown

OTT: When villain x/raise, I leant towards this being a semi-bluff as I felt most players would have x/raised 2pr+ OTF on this texture, although not impossible for him to x/c F and x/raise T with 22/66/77/67 I felt that this would be les likely. I also felt that it was unlikely for villain to hold 8T or even 8Ts since it is UTG vs BB (but maybe I give villain too much credit for good hand selection as an unknown)

Should this just be a bet/fold?

I felt that since villains range is more heavily weighted towards semi bluffs I should call and see what happen OTR with the plan to mostly check behind. I felt that villain can have JJ a lot since this line would make sense. I felt that 3-betting would only get villain to fold worse hands or bluffs and continue with 2pr+ and strong draws.

If we include 2pr+ type hands that x/c'd F and x/raised T:

Spoiler

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 2s9d7dJs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 44.19% 44.19% 0.00% { AdAc }
BB 55.81% 55.81% 0.00% { QQ, JdJh, JdJc, JhJc, 9h9s, 9h9c, 9s9c, 7h7s, 7h7c, 7s7c, 2d2h, 2d2c, 2h2c, T8s, 86s, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, As9s, Ks9s, Qs9s, Jh9h, Jc9c, Ts9s, Kd8d, Qd8d, 9s8s, 9h7h, 9s7s, 9c7c, 6d5d }

If we exclude 97s/22/99/77 (we expect them to almost always x/raise):

Spoiler

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 2s9d7dJs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 75.38% 75.38% 0.00% { AdAc }
BB 24.62% 24.62% 0.00% { QQ, JdJh, JdJc, JhJc, KTs, QTs, T8s, 86s, AsKs, AsQs, KdQd, KsQs, AhJh, KdJd, KhJh, KcJc, QdJd, QhJh, QcJc, AsTs, JdTd, JhTh, JcTc, As9s, Ks9s, Qs9s, Jh9h, Jc9c, Ts9s, As8s, Kd8d, Ks8s, Qd8d, Qs8s, 9s8s, As7s, Ks7s, 8s7s, As6s, 7s6s, As5s, 7s5s, 6d5d, 6s5s, As4s, As3s, KTo, QTo, AhJd, AhJc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, KdJh, KdJc, KhJd, KhJc, KsJd, KsJh, KsJc, KcJd, KcJh, QdJh, QdJc, QhJd, QhJc, QsJd, QsJh, QsJc, QcJd, QcJh, JdTh, JdTs, JdTc, JhTd, JhTs, JhTc, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs }

OTR: now that I improve I beat a lot of his value hands like sets and 2pr that he might have been x/raising me with.

Should this be a check behind or bet/fold since villain is never x/raise bluffing me and he probably just x/c's all worse value hands on this river? I feel that it is personally.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 113.6 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
SB: 104.2 BB (VPIP: 11.76, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
BB: 118.8 BB
Hero (UTG): 119.6 BB
MP: 100.6 BB (VPIP: 53.33, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 16)
CO: 368 BB (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♦ A♣

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) 2♠ 9♦ 7♦
BB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, BB calls 4 BB

Turn: (14.4 BB, 2 players) J♠
BB checks, Hero bets 6.8 BB, BB raises to 17 BB, Hero calls 10.2 BB

River: (48.4 BB, 2 players) A♠
BB checks, Hero bets 23.2 BB, BB raises to 94.8 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 71.6 BB

Spoiler

BB shows 8♠ 5♠ (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 20%, Flop 23%, Turn 34%)
Hero shows A♦ A♣ (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 80%, Flop 77%, Turn 66%)
BB wins 228.2 BB


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14 replies
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Not sure why there isn’t a reaction about this hand, because this is a very interesting 1 I think.
Especially the river is interesting and it’s for me difficult to set him on a flush or straight here. So I would play the hand the same way as cash game fish.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

According to the Baluga Theorem, we should fold turn with less than too 2p.
Nothing special about this hand.


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Sunrise1912
Joined: 24.11.2009

The only special thing about this hand is villian's silly play. He loose tons of value when you check this river behind with your Jx QQ,KK, AdXd holdings. Most probably he hoped that you would bet with a missed draw or something. Please do not post spoilers next time.

As played i am folding turn unless i have reads for a maniac/bluffy opponent.

When you hit top set on river i dont think we can fold. We beat all his set/2p combos and lose to few flush combos (68s, 78s, 67s, 56s, 58s, T8 which is a straight on the turn). He should be folding the rest on the flop as they do not have any additional equity besides just two overs and a backdoor flush draw.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

We can fold this OTT and not worry about it too much.
OTR some stupid straight and flush are possible Maybe we should be safe and check behind? When you bet I think you get good odds to call villains shove too.


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Without looking to spoiler: I would have x this river and make a note for villain where he/she is raising with OTT. Better to have info now and money later

Looking to spoiler: Bummer man but at least you know that he can semi-bluff you and not understand the principle why he is betting.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Villain is not so dumb. Any 6, T, spade helps him. Paired board helps him too as we may not call always there.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

I think your reasoning for the turn call make sense, but I would rather fold. I believe players will have a very good hand OTT (Two Pairs +) more often than a draw. Also, if we supose that sets would raise the flop, we could also supose that draws would raise the flop, so if he check/raised a draw OTT, he would have to have backdoor draws OTF which check/called and decided to check/raise the turn, which is not that likelly at those stakes, especially given positions involved in this hand.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Originally posted by nitrol
Villain is not so dumb. Any 6, T, spade helps him. Paired board helps him too as we may not call always there.

I think villain is quite dumb for calling this hand preflop. Postflop I wouldn't fold the flop with his hand either. His turn play is interesting because most villains would just check/call, so I like his play. He should bet the river then.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I was addressing the turn play...


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Originally posted by nitrol
Villain is not so dumb. Any 6, T, spade helps him. Paired board helps him too as we may not call always there.

So you are saying that villain may have enough FE against Hero OTT?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

It is combined - FE and he can improve. And the fact that he does this with weaker holdings is good.


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Sunrise1912
Joined: 24.11.2009

His check raise on the turn is indeed good and not many NL5 players would do it because they know they do not have much fold equity. Current hand shows exactly the same as it seems hero is in love with his aces and cant find the fold button.

However, villian must bet the river himself as in the long term hero will be checking back almost 100% of his range except spade flushes and set of aces. This makes the bet on the rive by villain far more profitable than check raise. Villian was also lucky to be against the one hand that would call him off and is behind. The rest that call river raise are flushes and all of them higher.


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muel294
Joined: 06.06.2009

Thanks for the feedback guys. I think you are right about the Turn. If we boil it down, without specific reads, most players at these stakes aren't bluffing us. So are they doing it with worse? Probs not, so they're doing it with 2pr+ like people have pointed out.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

You are welcome. :)


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