Blind vs CO w 97s and flopped Top Pair

LeSavant

Joined: 09.12.2006

21.05.2016, 11:16 0

iPoker - €0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 40 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
CO: 102 BB (VPIP: 10.53, PFR: 10.53, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
BTN: 52.75 BB (VPIP: 32.69, PFR: 17.31, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 52)
SB: 62.5 BB (VPIP: 39.53, PFR: 11.63, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 44)
Hero (BB): 143.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9♦ 7♦

fold, CO raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (9.5 BB, 3 players) 4♥ 3♠ 7♥
Hero bets 5 BB, CO calls 5 BB, fold

Turn: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 8♦
Hero checks, CO bets 13.5 BB, Hero calls 13.5 BB

River: (46.5 BB, 2 players) T♥
Hero checks, CO checks

Spoiler

CO shows 3♣ 3♥ (Three of a Kind, Threes)
(Pre 48%, Flop 97%, Turn 100%)
Hero mucks 9♦ 7♦ (One Pair, Sevens)
(Pre 52%, Flop 3%, Turn 0%)
CO wins 43.5 BB

I calculated equity based on standart CO opening range, discounted some hands he might not cbet with so when he cbets again OTT his range should consist of sets and overpairs, Top pair/2nd pair hands like A7- T7s and a lot of flush draws. My required equity is 29% so I think I got a call here or did I give him too many draws?

Spoiler

Board: 4♥3♦7♥ 8♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     63.81%  63.05%   0.76% { 77+, 44-33, A8s-A7s, K7s, Q7s, J7s, T7s, 97s, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, Kh9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, Th9h, Kh8h, Qh8h, Jh8h, Th8h, 9h8h, 8h7h, Ah6h, 7h6h, Ah5h, 6h5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, A8o-A7o, K7o }
BB     36.19%  35.42%   0.76% { 9d7d }

Check out my blog and my progression on the bankroll challenge: Starting over from scratch

Reply

Quote

6 replies

YohanN7

Joined: 15.06.2009

Posts: 4,700

21.05.2016, 11:35 0

I have not gone thorough the equity calculation in detail, but the numbers you come up with sound reasonable. However, remember this:

Equilab gives rundown equities. This is 100% reliable provided you are all in. Usually you aren't and it may be very early in the hand with more bets to come.
You are out of position. Your opponent can realize all of his equity share and much more. You can't. Deduct a lot from your equity.

As played, turn is a fold.

There's always going to be one fly in the ointment - Boomer2k10

Reply

Quote

Dadramel

Joined: 10.08.2014

Posts: 1,713

21.05.2016, 11:38 0

You've got one call and fold on any completed draw.

Reply

Quote

tiltmonk

Joined: 02.07.2014

Posts: 361

21.05.2016, 11:47 0

I think check folding turn vs this opponent is not a mistake and +EV. We bet the flop and get a call. So, our opponent could still have 55-66 that is the only hand we can beat in his pocket pairs range. He still could have nut flush draw(11 combos) and pairs which beat us (48).(No equilab at the hand right now). So, folding is ok.

Reply

Quote

la55i