[NL16] Set on a scary flop

Maybe good to use a hand converter next time if this isn’t a live hand.
I have also moved your hand to the hand discussion forum. This way you get faster feedback.

As cash game fish I would consider to 3bet pre-flop this hand for value, but that depends if you have any reads or stats on him. As played I don’t think if you shipped the flop or turn. So I would most likely even fold it, but that depends also per villain I think.

Hopefully helps this a little bit and otherwise you can always ask it.

Best regards,
SDK1987

The math is that of value hands villain has 16 AK and 6 combos of sets of which you bead nada. This presumes that villain has a functioning brain cell and is not doing this with two pair or worse for value when you are 200bb deep.

A good villain is going to bluff some, but this takes balls to do 200 bb deep. There is no way the average player at NL16 has the right equipment. You are losing here since the average villain isn't bluffing nearly enough.

Whether to call once (flop) or twice (flop + turn) is a math thing that I don't feel like calculating. You have outs versus straights. There is some guessing involved as well since he might opt to delay aggression until turn with either sets or straights. My hunch is that folding turn is best, but this is just a hunch.

I've discussed the hand with other's and you're right I'm crushed by so many combos that unless I have a read on the villain semi bluffing a draw here it's very likely I'm almost drawing dead and don't have a raising range here, I shouldn't have raised the flop on this board and when I get re-raised I should be folding most of the time, the turn didn't change anything and while I'm already deep it's fold time. Also if I was going to be shoving this turn then I should have been shoving the flop.

Best case scenario I think in this hand would be to call reasonably sized barrels to the river and hope to see two pair if I really can't get away from bottom set.

I agree with Yohan. Villain has good chunk of better hands. That said, I prefer playing it safe untill I improve.

I think average villain doesn't 3bet bluff OTF. You are most likely beat. Folding OTF is difficult but it might be the best play. OTT should be a fold at least. I think the worst hand villain has is AhQh, which has FD+gutshot.

this is great

I forgot one thing. Even if we do have outs versus straights, for the same reason we are careful, villain should think thrice about calling river when the board pairs if he holds a straight.

Here is a truly great bluff: Suppose you hold AK. Same flop, but you slowplay and just call. On turn he bets, you raise, he reraises. The chances he has a set is actually vey small. He has a straight almost all of the time. Now you go into the tank and use all of it. (Write something in the chat to make him think you are agonizing) Then you call. If the board now pairs, he'll check and might very well fold to a shove. It is virtually risk free.

so, we are playing deep stacks. Your opponent could have more better hands - such as straight and better sets. Alos, the main notice - we are deep. On the flop your opponent made 3b - you have only bottom set. I think we have to fold on the flop after PFA 3B flop. It is about easy shove on the flop if we are 100BB with middle set, but I don't think we have to loose 200BB with bottom set. Fold vs 3b on the flop in ok in deep stacks.

I think flop is a fold.

I don't think you were wrong when you raised, but you should have folded against his 3-bet.

He might have AK, JJ, QQ. I definitely don't think villain has less then set. He might be crazy enough to 3-bet flop with overpair or two-pair or a strong draw, but I don't think he would. Vs unknown, its safer to fold, unless you have seen him playing very aggressively with such hands.

call Flop, call turn;) Don't Raise!

Being so deep, I guess you are behind indeed. Live another day dude.

I would say it really depends on villain here but I think the fold is a good play if you don't have any other clues.
First both ranges are pretty wide, because the action preflop is just a standard raise.
So going with that, obviously he could have a straight or a higher set but also KK, KQs, some weird draws, even one or two bluff combos. Maybe even AQh. It's hard to say without any other stats but I think the fold is close but depending on villain, a call might also be good.