NL50 AJo, raising TPTK

Turn raise is horrible. What is the purpose? Folding out his air? Not good. Making draws pay? Better, but then raise bigger.

Combo counting is good when it means something. Here it takes the back seat since you have more reliable information (namely, he check-raised and kept betting on a blank).

Why it's bad to count combos in this spot? Ranges are well defined so I think we can count combos and it will be helpful. At the moment I thought he has draws mostly (as I have a blocker to JTs) and I thought I might induce a 3 bet shove with a draw like 5h4h, KhQh,9h8h, Ahxh with some frequencies. But I also think that calling would be better because to keep his bluffs.

Turn raise is good to charge his draws. I don't think he has air, only draws with good equity.

Unlucky hand. But your are both deep. Pot controll ott and otr.

I don't like the turn raise either. I probably would have folded here OTF otherwise for sure OTT as SB calls with a strong range or hands with high postflop expectations. We should be cautious here.

I agree that turn raise is not good. And I do not like to pump the pot when deep.
We should just call.

Originally posted by wealthybrainer
Why it's bad to count combos in this spot? Ranges are well defined so I think we can count combos and it will be helpful. At the moment I thought he has draws mostly (as I have a blocker to JTs) and I thought I might induce a 3 bet shove with a draw like 5h4h, KhQh,9h8h, Ahxh with some frequencies. But I also think that calling would be better because to keep his bluffs.

Information coming late in the hand is much more reliable than his perceived preflop range. Combo counting does give something, but is error prone, and most people do it wrong when they use e.g. Equilab to analyze the situation. For instance, here he probably is betting something like 1.5/3 possible combos of TT (he should probably raise those preflop, but migh sometimes call), but only 0.005/1 of the possible holding 5♥:4♥: (most rightly don't play these preflop, at least not with a call). Some would think he might play KQ this way and throw in all 16 combos into Equilab. Wrong. See the point? Assigning ranges is tricky business. Doing pot odds calculations (taking into account whether he bets or raises) is much simpler and less error prone. Adjust some to his general tendencies and you'll exploit a bit.

I also think that the turn raise was bad.