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Slooneeek
Joined: 23.09.2014

Hi there!

I got a hand which I ve bluffed for 3 barells. I've done some analysing showing me how many hands will fold in every street.

Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2945935
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $6.67
SB: $5.28
BB: $5.00
UTG: $6.55
MP: $8.06
Hero (CO): $5.22

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is CO with 7 :heart: 8 :heart:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, BTN calls $0.15, 1 fold, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.47) 4 :spade: 5 :diamond: 5 :heart: (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.26, BTN calls $0.26, BB folds

Turn: ($0.99) Q :spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.55, BTN calls $0.55

River: ($2.09) 9 :club: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.15, BTN calls $1.15

I had on this guy only 15 hands - 20/13 stats

Flop - I think that cbet is standard here
He's calling range is like A5s, A4s, A5o, A4o, 99-22, 78s(only dimonds and spades) , 67s, 65s, 67o( rarely so I don't put it ) it gives me 90 hands. I assume that TT+ AK, AQ he would 3bet
Turn - I think that betting on this card shows power often, cause Im representing like AA-QQ, 44, A5 some strong draw like 6s7s, but basically is good card for us to make him fold cards like 22,33,A4, 7d8d, often 67 without fd or even some pairs like 66,77... but I left it cause tbh I don't know if he's folding yet.
I left in his range 58 hands which is A5s, A5o, 44-99, 7s8s, 6s7s, 65s. It gives me 32fold hands.
To a river bet he might fold only 66-88 and missed draws, so he is calling us with 34 hands, 24 folding.
My question is how to count is the bluff is profitable, how many hands has to fold on which street etc. How to analyse better these kind of spots.
Asking for help :f_thumbsup:

thanks, cheers


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2 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

The pot starts mw and when you get call you should stop bluffing as people are a bit more honest when mw...
At least do not bet the river...


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Yup, I would stop bluffing OTT. At least OTR. And if you do bluff OTR imo it should be close to pot size or even overbet. If villain has something he can call 2 streets with he probably won't fold so easily to 1/2 OTR.
In general I think it is better to go for 3 barrel bluff when you pick up some equity OTT.


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