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A correct fold on the river?

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599ALG
Joined: 13.08.2014

Hello all,

How would you calculate / evaluate / how would you look for answer to know if such a fold on the river is correct?

No stats on the opponent.

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

SB: $12.33 (123.3 bb)
BB: $10 (100 bb)
UTG: $22.77 (227.7 bb)
MP: $5.58 (55.8 bb)
CO: $10.19 (101.9 bb)
Hero (BTN): $11.43 (114.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 6♥: A♥:
UTG raises to $0.27, MP folds, CO calls $0.27, Hero calls $0.27, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.96) A♠: 3♠: J♥: (3 players)
UTG bets $0.60, CO folds, Hero calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.16) A♣: (2 players)
UTG bets $1.30, Hero calls $1.30

River: ($4.76) 4♦: (2 players)
UTG bets $3.60, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

$4.76 pot ($0.21 rake)
Final Board: A♠: 3♠: J♥: A♣: 4♦:
UTG mucked and won $4.55 ($2.38 net)
Hero mucked 6♥: A♥: and lost (-$2.17 net)


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9 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

You need 30% equity to call this. Now you just have to start playing with Equilab and put villain on a range and see how much equity you have.
Ax is pretty much blocked but it is still possible, so is JJ. Do you think he will 3 barrel as a bluff here on this board? Can he play QQ,KK like this?


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

So you need to pay $3,60 into total pot of $11,96, which corresponds to 30,1% of the pot. That means you need to win the pot in 30,1% of cases to make the call profitable (you need to have 30,1% or more equity vs villain's range). Giving him a range (that's the hardest part) in Equilab, you can see if you have enough equity. My guess here is that he will not have a worse hand often enough to justify a call.


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Tyrion88
Joined: 21.06.2007

I would also fold the river.
I decide by feeling. I just don't think a guy will bluff 3 times with a flush draw or KK.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I agree.
Didn't put villain on a range but I believe he will not play like this with weaker hands.


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oI2ange
Joined: 21.07.2015

Pretty gross. Don't hate the fold given the positions. In terms of absolute hand strength hands, you also have some better hands like AQ to call here with.


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Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

You have 30%


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Originally posted by Dadramel
You have 30%

That’s an easy answer without any range. I would think it’s possible, but he needs to have some weaker hands in his range:
Board: A♠3♠J♥ A♣ 4♦
Equity Win Tie
UTG 48.65% 48.65% 0.00% { KK-JJ, 33, ATs+, KJs, QJs, KsQs, AJo+ }
BU 51.35% 51.35% 0.00% { Ah6h }

Board: A♠3♠J♥ A♣ 4♦
Equity Win Tie
UTG 58.06% 58.06% 0.00% { KK-JJ, 33, ATs+, KsQs, AJo+ }
BU 41.94% 41.94% 0.00% { Ah6h }

Board: A♠3♠J♥ A♣ 4♦
Equity Win Tie
UTG 60.00% 60.00% 0.00% { KK-JJ, 33, ATs+, AJo+ }
BU 40.00% 40.00% 0.00% { Ah6h }

Board: A♠3♠J♥ A♣ 4♦
Equity Win Tie
UTG 75.00% 75.00% 0.00% { KK, JJ, 33, ATs+, AJo+ }
BU 25.00% 25.00% 0.00% { Ah6h }

Board: A♠3♠J♥ A♣ 4♦
Equity Win Tie
UTG 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% { JJ, 33, ATs+, AJo+ }
BU 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% { Ah6h }

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

And what do you think about calling this pre flop in the first place? We are against UTG, which means strong hand, so when we flop ace we have to worry if our kicker is good enough. And the river is hard, by if we fold PF, we don´t have to be there :). Guys already did math, so we see, we are not good here.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

When CO calls too we get better odds. Standard call for me in this situation. Vs UTG alone, I would fold.


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