EV of shoving rivers on 3 bet pots

I don't see this working often. Yes your shove looks scary and villain might not call it but there are some problems 1) fish tend to call too much and on these spots I have seen someone call with some stupid mid pair 2) good players might call too

The real question is what hands can you bet flop but not continue betting OTT and then shove river when draws don't complete. Not many I guess, except missed draws and other bluffs. Maybe some very strong hands that don't need protection OTT. But overall to me your line looks bluffy and I would bluff catch with some hands. And when you use this big sizing to bluff, do you really win often enough?

Do you 3bet if you have AQ and then shove river for value in hand 2?

When you bet around 1.5x pot you have to win it over 60% of the times to make profit. Some good players will catch you and some bad players will do that also. If you are sure you will make them fold 7 out of 10 times, then go ahead and do this

i've done it myself sometimes in a number of stakes. is it 7 out of 10? i'm not sure for micros ♦
it definitely doesn't work enough on 25 and higher. at lower i have feeling it might work enough since most regs will just prefer to play it safe

the first hand is not good to overbet the river as bluff... villains have a lot of Ax(without topkicker) in his range, the board is pretty much dry and you cant represent a better made hand by shoving the river, if you think about your range, there is simply no hand you can have that is beating a AJ for example. And for the same reason, I would overbet that if I had 2X to get max value.
Also, if you want to make him fold middle pairs, you dont need to overbet the river. But I think we shouldnt even try that.

I do like the hand 2 to overbet as bluff... His range have a lot of middle pairs, when the Q hits, it is totally in your range, its a ok line to bluff, I think. And I would bet like 60% of the pot if I had the Q.

Thanks guys for your answers and sharing your experience on the topic, I gave it a second though and I guess that it is not such a good idea.

First hand: I don´t see a problem here. I would just use smaller sizing preflop (3-3,5x).
Second one: I would check OTF and check OTR. With AK we are often ahead, we don´t have to bet imo.

PS: I´ve noticed that you make the 3 bet smaller with AK than with Q9. It should be vice versa imo :).

I do 3x IP and 4x OOP.

With AK on second hand you check call the flop and check fold turn ?

You are in position, so you can´t check call :). But if u were OOP, yes I think that´s what I would do. About that sizing, also consider strength of your hand. You play at microstakes so nobody should really exploit you.

In position checking behind sounds like a better option, I agree.

But out of position, since we agree to put money in by planning to check call, why don't we bet ourselves? At least that gives us fold equity.
Usually when I go check call is when I don't want to be raised, and in this spot I represent so much strength so most of the time I won't get raised.

I think it depends on the opponent very much. At microstakes there are lots of straight-forward playing regs, who multitable using ABC-poker and don't like tricky difficult spots and hard decisions. Against them this river-shoving could be profitable strategy. But against fishes it probably won't.

I would never 3bet hand1, you should have a profitable flat most of the time and better hands to 3bet with here,

The Q blocker is meh and your hand actually plays really bad against co 3 bet calling range that will have tons of qj kq aq that have you dominated.

You can also cbet the flop smaller

The Q9s is a 3 bet bluff, I use the following ranges (they are meant to be SB vs CO, but I play that basically blinds vs late pos). Also I almost never 4 bet bluff.

Do you think it could be improved for nl5?

SBvCO and BBvCO ranges should be different. From BB you have to call less and there is no one to act behind you. I agree with lemon that Q9s should be a profitable flat from BB.

Yeah, I guess it is close...
For me Q9s from BB is a fold, and I build 3 bet bluff range with the top of my folding range. This is why I 3 bet here
HERO VILAIN

But for this post my question is assuming the previous line, saying hero 3 bets OOP, and has no showdown value. Hero cbets, vilain calls. Turn goes check/check.
What range do you expect nl5 regs to have, and with which part of that range do they call an overbet ?

Taking in account that:

Overbetting: My range is stronger than yours, but I have plenty of bluffs, too. Your range is full of mediocre bluffcatchers, and we both know it. I’m going to bet big: What are you going to do about it?
[edited]

Linking to our competitor sites is forbidden so I edited your post.

What comes to his range, when he calls pre and calls flop I assume he has Ax hands and pocket pairs. If you shove there he might find a call with some hands.
As I said before, some good players might see your bluff and some bad players will call too. If you believe you will get folds 7 out of 10 then go ahead but that is up to you. Personally I wouldn't do that, just too risky. Usually when you 3bet bluff pre, it is profitable, but when you get calls post you should just stop there and not continue bluffing.

Ok ! I understand
Thanks for your answers