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nut flush otr vs overbet on paired board in 3b pot

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briccius
Joined: 26.06.2007

PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 4)
SB: 148 BB (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
BB: 116.5 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 46)
UTG: 192 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
Hero (MP): 149.5 BB
CO: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 18.82, PFR: 11.37, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 262)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♥ K♥

UTG raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 10.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 9.5 BB, fold

Flop: (24.5 BB, 2 players) Q♥ T♠ 8♥
BB checks, Hero bets 17.5 BB, BB calls 17.5 BB

Turn: (59.5 BB, 2 players) T♣
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (59.5 BB, 2 players) 3♥
BB bets 88.5 BB and is all-in,

Hero?

My 3b preflop was a misclick. I normally just flat this hand vs utg.

Should I check back flop? BB has rather nitty stats, if only over a very small sample. I expect him to have hands as strong as AK, AQ, QQ-TT a bunch after he flats utg open and MP 3bet.

So I should probably fold river, even though it hurts. Do not think he has worse flushes given his stats.

Spoiler

Hero calls 88.5 BB

BB shows Q♠ Q♣ (Full House, Queens full of Tens)
(Pre 54%, Flop 67%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows A♥ K♥ (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 46%, Flop 33%, Turn 0%)
BB wins 228 BB


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4 replies
MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

3betting AKs is ok even vs UTG, it's 3betting AKo (from IP) that is not really (and at micros some would argue it's still doable versus most opponents anyway).

Here we have a mandatory cbet, but more like half pot. I don't mind second barelling even if it's a little kamikaze, and as played I call river because I'm way too fucking curious for my own sake


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

He doesn't have worse flushes ever unless in some weird leveling war, but he has worse bluffs. Betting pattern, overall board, and river card begs for a bluff. But calling or folding is up to you:f_biggrin:


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

It is a 3bet pot and Ah, Kh and Qh are known. I agree with yohan that villain doesn't have worse flushes.
When villain calls hero's big cbet OTF he probably has some kind of made hand. I don't see that many pure air combos.
Villain probably doesn't block many of hero's flushes and maybe he shouldn't turn his showdown value into a bluff very often. So I don't think this is a super good bluff spot for villain.

I think I would still probably call :)


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

Flop cbet is ok, but I make it smaller (1/2 of the pot). I like c the turn as well. River is interesting. Firstly I thought I wouldn´t fold this, but when I thought about it more I´m for folding. In villain´s range I see full houses, weaker flushes and some bluffs. Bluffs are not usual at micros, so I´d exclude this option. Weaker flushes - I think he can have them pretty easily, it´s NL2 and ppl might overplay it like that, BUT we still have 2 cards of hearts, so there is smaller chance that villain´s got it. Therefore, most likely, villain holds FH and that´s why I´d fold. :)


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