Unsure about shove on the flop

Textures like this shoveing seems the best option with our hand

In this situation I think you got it in good. IF you have this specific read you just have to go with it sometimes. I feel like you overplayed the hand a little bit. You could have just also called the raise on the flop. Then evaluate the turn to see if this would have likely hit is range. I could see him slowing down OTT and you might get away from the hand on the river. But for NL2 I feel like its over analysing it a bit as sometimes they show up with strange hands.

Villain doesn't look so aggressive if we look at his pre flop stats. So what kind of read did you have?

This hand is overplayed OTF. He might bluff with a draw but those have a great equity against you, and villain still has sets and 2 pair in his range.

Equity Win Tie
MP2 37.86% 36.51% 1.36% AhJc
MP3 62.14% 60.78% 1.36% 99, 66, JdJs, QTs, J9s, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d

So you have 38% equity. We can actually calculate that your shove is -17BB EV if we assume we do not have any fold equity. And we really have to assume that, because the more villain folds vs your shove, the lower your actual equity will become and we are in a bad shape.

If you had a draw yourself, you should do this. But with a top pair (J), I think it would be better to just call and re-evaluate OTT.

Go with it at nl2, these players won't hesitate to call with a fd.

Originally posted by Dadramel
Go with it at nl2, these players won't hesitate to call with a fd.

But how often NL2 guys will check raise with FD? I think semibluff check raising is not that common at lower limits.
Second thing is, I just calculated that it is -EV shove even if villain calls with decent amount of flush draws? What do you think about that?

From my experience at 2nl the majority of population don't have that many draws in their check raising ranges. When I read the hand you posted I thought more about sets or 2 pairs type of hand.

Don't you think he can have weaker top pair or weaker draw in his range? He can call wide pre so he can continue with a lot of hand even with a raise otf. I actually dont see his current hand QTo in his range what you give him or 78o and so (. Its quite nitty I only see the best draws and sets but thats not the correct range I think. If he is a nittier player that would be ok and ofc flop shove would be bad than.

IMO at nl2 it is not bad to put the opponent closer to the top of his range. And then overfold and underbluff.

1. I don't really like shoves in these spots vs majority of villains, even if it is NL2. The guy could have a lot of hands in his range, if we look at his stats, so I don't hate the play, but I don't like it either, unless you played enough with him that you know he doesn't play his strong made hands like this.

2. Why did you discard the option of him having a set because he check-raised the flop?!

3. Would you post this hand if the K didn't hit the river? I'm not joking, an honest answer to this question can reveal some things.

Originally posted by la55i
Villain doesn't look so aggressive if we look at his pre flop stats. So what kind of read did you have?

This hand is overplayed OTF. He might bluff with a draw but those have a great equity against you, and villain still has sets and 2 pair in his range.

Equity Win Tie
MP2 37.86% 36.51% 1.36% AhJc
MP3 62.14% 60.78% 1.36% 99, 66, JdJs, QTs, J9s, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d

So you have 38% equity. We can actually calculate that your shove is -17BB EV if we assume we do not have any fold equity. And we really have to assume that, because the more villain folds vs your shove, the lower your actual equity will become and we are in a bad shape.

If you had a draw yourself, you should do this. But with a top pair (J), I think it would be better to just call and re-evaluate OTT.

I've played several hands with him, and he was more of a slow play-call guy, rather than a check-raising guy, so a check-raise was a fishy move from him. But I do agree that I should've called and re-evaluated OTT to have played correctly, then if a draw does hit the board - I get to fold, else getting him to fold would be more easy.

Originally posted by Inv1ctus83
1. I don't really like shoves in these spots vs majority of villains, even if it is NL2. The guy could have a lot of hands in his range, if we look at his stats, so I don't hate the play, but I don't like it either, unless you played enough with him that you know he doesn't play his strong made hands like this.

2. Why did you discard the option of him having a set because he check-raised the flop?!

3. Would you post this hand if the K didn't hit the river? I'm not joking, an honest answer to this question can reveal some things.

1-2. Like mentioned before I have him as a slowplay-calling guy with made hand. He also seemed to be leading with raising only when he had initiative from pre-flop, not otherwise.
3. Probably not. It's harder to see places to improve on when everything goes my way. At first I was really thinking, I did the correct play, but after some time thought that calling was correct. If I would've won the hand, then I probably wouldn't have spent so much thought on the hand, and posted on the forum.

But on the other hand, if he didn't make his hand on the river, other hands like this that would've happened in the future would've gotten me thinking and I would've posted.

Thanks for the responses! I think I've learnt the lesson
Glad to be a part of the community.

You really can't have such a read from a player in internet games without very long history. Sure he can prefer slow-playing in some scenarios, but here the board is drawy with three possible open-ended straight draws with 87, T8, QT, gutshots and flush-draw. So it's a board, where even slow-playing villain should play fast his made hands, not just to protect against draws but also to avoid action-killing cards on the turn.

I call the flop and then call turn if flush does not complete. C/r is too strong at NL2 imo. Your play is good, but I would do it when I want to exploit somebody, which means, that I need read he is c/r draws.