AQ BB vs BU – on the bubble

Joined: 18.02.2009

10.12.2016, 22:15 0

partypoker - 5000/10000 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 19.21 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
CO: 16.54 BB (VPIP: 8.33, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
BTN: 24.8 BB (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 12)
SB: 12.1 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 12)
Hero (BB): 9.79 BB
UTG: 27.55 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 66)

6 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.1 BB) Hero has Q♦ A♠

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9.69 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 6.69 BB

Flop: (20.49 BB, 2 players) A♥ 2♠ 7♦

Turn: (20.49 BB, 2 players) J♥

River: (20.49 BB, 2 players) 9♥

Spoiler

BTN shows K♣ A♣ (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 76%, Flop 87%, Turn 93%)
Hero shows Q♦ A♠ (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 24%, Flop 13%, Turn 7%)
BTN wins 20.49 BB

Hy, I played HU for a year now, improved my hand reading skills a lot in that time, I'm also very confidant in HU play now. I decided to try MTT turbos and I like it a bit more than HU, so I'm thinking about grinding the 5$ turbos now.

In this situation there were 32 players left in the tournament and I was in last place. My M is 4.7 so I could survive a few more rounds. The BU was quite agro lately. I decided to ship it and got dominated and lost pretty much on the bubble.

I don't expect to have any fold equity here after he 3x raised, but I still think my hand is strong enough to ship it, because I'll dominate his calling range a lot. Sure, I'll lose in some cases here, but doubling up gives me a much bigger chance to take the MTT down. My question is what range do you 3 bet ship here? I'm shipping with TT+, AQ+.

I'm also interested in how many BBs or M value do you want to have to just call with AQ instead of shipping in this situation?

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5 replies

SDK1987

Moderator

Joined: 12.11.2008

Posts: 43,850

11.12.2016, 10:16 0

First of all is this indeed a pretty standard shove against a loose aggressive player like him.
Even if we played 24bb effective I would shove against him and 3bet if we would play deeper with the intention to get it in against him.

Cheers,
SDK1987

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Primrose6789

Joined: 01.07.2016

Posts: 8,891

11.12.2016, 10:55 0

I don't expect to have any fold equity here after he 3x raised, but I still think my hand is strong enough to ship it, because I'll dominate his calling range a lot.

These are exactly my thoughts. In this spot your AQ is a mandatory jam! It was just bad luck that the BTN held AK. Imho you did nothing wrong.

Against a player with those stats I would jam AQ even with M=15 because I see a good chance to double up against him. AQ is a solid hand and a raise from the BTN is mostly just a steal (okay, here in this spot it was NOT). As you say, he very probably doesn´t fold and based on his stats he probably calls even with Ax, any pair, suited broadways, maybe even suited connectors, so we mostly dominate his hand. I would say we have about >65-80% equity against his range.

In this situation I would just call if we had M>15 and there was a super shortie/there were super shorties in the tournament.

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prevolsek

Joined: 18.02.2009

Posts: 290

11.12.2016, 11:48 0

Thank you both for the answers! :f_drink: