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tptk+nfd Facing big turn bet multiway

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Hi everyone , i'm looking for some advise on a few hands.

3 way action and the turn is kind of confusing with tptk and the nfd , but the action just makes me think hes very strong like a strait /set or at the very least 2 pair , so my outs would likely only be the flush outs.

I also have the SB to worry about who checked , but once he checks i really don't expect a check raise from sb i would expect a weak'ish holding , so should i call the turn bet ? and what about rivers.

sb
vpip/pfr/af/3b
27/20/3.0/13.5
hands
110

bb/villain
vpip/pfr/af/3b/6.7
53/33/1.6
hands
45

SB: $4 (100 bb)
BB: $3.64 (91 bb)
Hero (MP): $9.23 (230.8 bb)
CO: $4.75 (118.8 bb)
BTN: $4 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A♦: Q♦:
Hero raises to $0.12, CO calls $0.12, BTN folds, SB calls $0.10, BB calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.48) 3♦: 6♦: 5♠: (4 players)
SB bets $0.32, BB calls $0.32, Hero calls $0.32, CO folds

Turn: ($1.44) Q♠: (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $1.44, Hero ?


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8 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Yea villains like looks quite strong. It looks like he wants to protect his made hand from flush draws but it is weird that he didn't raise OTF. It is possible that flush outs are your only outs and vs that sizing you can't call.


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How often would you expect villain to just be doing something silly with a hand like 45 pair+ draw type of hand . 53/33 is very splashy , i just wasn't sure how to interpret his bet sizing with actual hand strength with those sorts of stats.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Equity Win Tie
MP2 33.64% 33.64% 0.00% AdQd
MP3 66.36% 66.36% 0.00% 66-55, 33, 65s, 7d6d, 7s6s, As4s, 6d4d, 6s4s, 5d4d, 5s4s

sets, 2 pair and some pair+combodraw hands. Vs that range you have 33% equity and that is how much you need to call his bet OTT.
Whether you can call or fold is actually quite close.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Close. I vote for a fold. I think need a little bit better implied odds, and SB is not likely joining the party. Also, "getting away" OTR will be problematic due to great odds, since a call almost commits us.


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oI2ange
Joined: 21.07.2015

This seems like a call, especially vs. said villain. He seems quite fishy and I think it's a fine spot to call the turn with position + the other player can come along too. Without TPTK, it's probably closer to a fold.


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Dre4mBl00d
Joined: 28.10.2016

I vote to fold, because like la55i said, i think BB want to protect their hand from a flush draw and with this size bet you can't call. It's close.


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Kev43
Joined: 30.07.2010

Fold for me as well
As oI2ange said he doesn't seem like a tricky player, BUT imo he is more on the passive side and would probably just have called if SB had bet again OTT.
SB is usually capped when he donks and BB has a strong hand (a bit like in the Baluga theorem.. He doesn't want to see everybody fold on the flop but does want to make money on the turn).
Well obviously if you fold this you fold everything except QQ but I don't think it's a problem against a (seemingly) very straightforward player.


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MisterSnS
Joined: 09.11.2011

Agree with all the other guys. The price is just way too heavy. As soon as the SB leads out into 3 guys it's at least an overpair, much more likely a set, twopair, or the straight --> he would slow down with overpairs and keeps on betting the bigger (strong) part of his range. There's not enough money behind + we will not get any money from his sets as soon as the one-card straight completes, plus any 5♦ is bad for us as well.


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