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888 1$ 9-man turbo 250/500 87o Nash-push heads up against donkey?

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BrunoFaiduttiFan
Joined: 01.12.2016

Thanks to hours of training with the ICM trainer I knew instantly that 87o was the bottom end of the Nash-pushing-range in this spot. Since I am quite sure that the average donkey will not call with hands like K5o or T8s (bottom end of the Nash-calling-range here) the push should be +EV.

However, would you take such a push HU against a donkey when it is only slightly +EV or would you prefer another line to maximise our EV in the HU against a donkey?

888 No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 250/500 Blinds (2 Spieler) - 888 Converter Tool from http://de.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

Hero (SB) (t8,118)
BB (t5,382)

Hero's M: 10.82

Preflop: Hero ist SB mit 8, 7
Hero raises t7,818, BB calls t4,832

Flop: (t10,664) J, 10, 8 (2 Spieler)

Turn: (t10,664) 5 (2 Spieler)

River: (t10,664) 7 (2 Spieler)

Gesamt Pot: t10,664

Ergebnisse :

Spoiler

Hero hat 8, 7 (two pair, eights and sevens).
BB hat A, 9 (straight, Jack high).
Ergebnis: BB gewinnt t10.76


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Against someone that will call to wide you can better push tighter and I would still fold this hand.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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angalius
Joined: 10.11.2011

I think that the "average donkey" calls as much hands as a regular player who understands ICM. They like every broadway hand, pairs and small aces and kings, even some Q8o and J7s +.
In this situation since you have the chiplead I would fold a couple of bad hands and push some stronger ones


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Okkernootje
Joined: 02.09.2013

Nash is an equilibrium strategy. With other words, if everybody would play accordingly then it would be a perfect (unexploitable) strategy. Since playing perfectly is impossible, there will be flaws in this approach. Sure NASH will give you some suggestion what range to push or call with, but the true ROI and +$$$ comes from (correct!) adjustments to these ranges derived from player tendencies/reads/stats.

Here, in these stakes, we can almost 100% assume that neither of the players will play their NASH ranges (no offence). I would say that even up to somewhat higher stakes players will call too tight and don't push wide enough. Though the better players will develop wider pushranges get (with growing understanding of the game), still players call nearly frequent enough (especially against other better players).

So looking at your hand, I'd rather minr/fold this to attack his high fold percentage. No need in risking our chiplead (and advantage) heads up by taking a thin +EV unexploitable (GTO) line. And I'm not scared that villain will see our exploitative line and will play back light either. If that seems to happen, we can easily adjust by sticking to easier ranges.


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