Hi everyone,
I'm currently re-evaluating the scenarios shown in:
Edited by SDK1987
The post is absoliutely nuts, unfortunatly rather old and therefore based on 3,5x OR and 12x 3bet as well as 25-30bb 4bet sizes.
I crunched some numbers based on 3x, 9x and 25x (25x is needed to create some memorizable value/bluff ratios).
Unfortunatly I'm facing a point where the strategy is differing a lot from the originally posted one:
Ratio of 4bet value to bluff.
To my understanding, the 4bet situation looks like this:
22bb invest for 13,5bb pot to make it a BE situation to 4bet. This results in 40% 4bets of the open raising range.
This ratio should be fixed regardless of the OR range.
Now the 5bet situation:
Approx. 30% of the time we will win the pot even with our bluffs (Axs, see explenation in the post).
We need to invest 91bb for the 5bet shove. 30% of 201,5bb is 60, therefore we're effectively risking 91-60=31bb.
The pot before the 5bet is 25+9+1,5 = 35,5bb.
Odds are 35,5:31 or 47%. In other words: 53% value 4bet and 47% bluff 4bet OR to simplify for practice: 1:1.
In the original post (due to the minor difference between 3b and 4b size) the ratio is 60/40.
In this overview:
(graphic from part 2) you see the value/bluff suggestions for 4bets depending on the OR range of Alice (the inital raiser and possible 4bettor).
Final question is this:
Is it correct (what I think it is), to simply increase our 4bet bluffs (third coloumn) to meet the number of combinations we have for value (1:1 ratio) without giving Bob (3/5-bettor) chances to exploit us.
Thanks for any help, I hope I layed out the problem as easy and compromised as possible.
Cheers.
Edit:
Quick ratios are:
3bet total: depending on OR range
3bet: 33:66 value to bluff (while the 33 include some 5bet bluffs)
4bet: 40% of OR Range and 1:1 value to bluff
5bet: 40:60 value to bluff
Edit2:
I just noticed that Pokersnowie (when I left poker this thing just came up), seems to have solved all of these scenarios already. Do you agree?
