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Correct 3 barrel/bluff on sqz pot OOP?

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antLrace
Joined: 13.03.2015

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $28.81 (115.2 bb)
Hero (BB): $33.09 (132.4 bb)
UTG: $37.08 (148.3 bb)
MP: $22 (88 bb)
CO: $65.90 (263.6 bb)
BTN: $28.87 (115.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K♦: A♣:
UTG raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $3.25, UTG folds, BTN calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.35) 9♣: 2♣: 3♦: (2 players)
Hero bets $3.20, BTN calls $3.20

Turn: ($13.75) 7♦: (2 players)
Hero bets $6, BTN calls $6

River: ($25.75) 3♣: (2 players)
Hero bets $19.95

opp cc range is 11 from BU, 3b is 4,5, fold to 3b% 0... i have 720 hands on him

Standard play pre

OTF i thought opp range is capped to PPs so a bet should fold most of them and plan to go for 3 barrel here.

OTT i think here is sizing mistake. if i want to jam river i should have bet bigger

OTR very good card to jam since opp should not have FDS that X/C twice and i would have heard before of sets (2 combos ). but i am not super happy since turn brought other draw and i have Kd myslef

anyways, this is my doubt. otr my 3 barreling range for value in this spot looks like this:

QQ+,AcKc,AcQc,AcJc

now this is my doubt, how many bluffs can i have otr? assuming opp bluff catching range is basically this QQ-88 maybe 77 and perhaps some 9x too if he decide to call IP.

i really dont know how to create a bluff range in this spot, and when i played this hands i thought Ackd could work, also is it necessary to have one against reg such as this opp? I think i need to know opp folding frequency on the river and whats fold equity there, but im beginner with that and if someone could help me i would be really thankfull
thx


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8 replies
antLrace
Joined: 13.03.2015

sorry forgot to add UTG is 31/19 over 120 hands


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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

now this is my doubt, how many bluffs can i have otr?

You should bluff all +EV hands. It is not about how many but what hands are +EV bluff. I think that most regs would raise turn most of the sets due to 2 fd possible which makes his range very weak. I think that on nl25 most of regs have trouble folding JJ, QQ but they might fold it when flush completes. You have flush blocker which is ok, you also block some slowplayed KK, AA if he ever have them in range. So I would bluff river because I think that most regs on NL25 are nitty vs 3 barrel especially when flush completes.

If you care about having "unexploitable" bluff frequency, if you value bet QQ+, AcJc+ 21 combos, so you need with your bet size around 2:1 value bluff ratio which would be around 9 bluffs. You likely bet all diamond fd so you can bluff those. Off course opponents might have some flushes in his range and some slowplayed KK, AA so QQ wouldn't be value bet in that case. It is ok to think about "unexploitable" bluff frequency but you should play purely exploitable because your opponent is not playing gto style anyway and he is unlikely to know your bluff frequency in this spot.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I do not like investing here as board is helping their call-sqz ranges.
But if you decide to bet river, make it smaller. The size of flop and turn.


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antLrace
Joined: 13.03.2015

Originally posted by nitrol
I do not like investing here as board is helping their call-sqz ranges.

why? is it not mostly PPs and some 9x?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

So? Which of those will fold?


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antLrace
Joined: 13.03.2015

maybe it would be better for me to have in this spot AQo/AJo
anyways i thought he is folding too much otr, and needed to balance value range and thats why i went for triple barrel


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