Full analysis =
Spoiler
villain is an unknown but is not playing a full stack therefore assumed villain was recreational:
Flop: c-bet or x/beh? I'm probably c-betting TP (JT+), OESDs, doble gutters, some 1pr type hands (8x, 77/99/TT). By c-betting I fold out some of villains equity share, don't give a free card and can barrel on some good turns (A/Q/T/K). Since I am IP may be better to make a delayed c-bet if villain checks twice just assume I am ahead and stab the turn, maybe with the intention of firing some rivers again to get a pr < TP to fold.
Turn: Worst case scenario: villain x/c's OTF w/ TP+ and good draws:
Spoiler
Board: J♣5♥8♦ A♠
Equity Win Tie
BU 30.63% 30.63% 0.00% { AcQh }
SB 69.37% 69.37% 0.00% { JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, 8h8s, 8h8c, 8s8c, 5d5s, 5d5c, 5s5c, T9s, 76s, AdJd, AhJh, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AhJs }
What I think is more likely however, is something like the following: (that includes some 1pr hands <TP, maybe even some gutshots + back doors)
Spoiler
Board: J♣5♥8♦ A♠
Equity Win Tie
BU 67.06% 67.06% 0.00% { AcQh }
SB 32.94% 32.94% 0.00% { JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, 8h8s, 8h8c, 8s8c, 5d5s, 5d5c, 5s5c, T9s, 76s, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, KdJd, KhJh, KsJs, QdJd, QsJs, JdTd, JhTh, JsTs, Jd9d, Jh9h, Js9s, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AhJs, AsJd, AsJh, KdJh, KdJs, KhJd, KhJs, KsJd, KsJh, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, QdJh, QdJs, QsJd, QsJh, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs, JdTh, JdTs, JdTc, JhTd, JhTs, JhTc, JsTd, JsTh, JsTc }
as for value betting the Turn again if I think villains range is as tight as above I should be checking behind b/c villain will only be x/c'ing again OTT w/ TP+ and good draws:
Spoiler
Board: J♣5♥8♦ A♠
Equity Win Tie
BU 30.63% 30.63% 0.00% { AcQh }
SB 69.37% 69.37% 0.00% { JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, 8h8s, 8h8c, 8s8c, 5d5s, 5d5c, 5s5c, T9s, 76s, AdJd, AhJh, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AhJs }
therefore we would only isolate ourselves vs better and essentially turn our hand into a bluff. If I had taken this line plan would be to check behind OTT and call some bricky rivers.
As played.....
River: When villain leads the river it feels a lot like 2pr+. What I think this spot boils down to is:
1) does villain do this as a bluff? If so w/ what?
- the only hand that makes sense here would be 67. Do we include combos of 67o? Probably not b/c I would expect villain to be folding 67o in the SB preflop, so that just leaves combos of 67s.
2) With what does villain do this for value?
worst case scenario: AJ/AQ/JJ/88/55/9Ts (i'm excluding combos of QQ/AA because I think villain will be 3b'ing these hands from the SB predominantly.)
Spoiler
Board: J♣5♥8♦ A♠ Q♦
Equity Win Tie
BU 43.48% 43.48% 0.00% { AcQh }
SB 56.52% 56.52% 0.00% { JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, 8h8s, 8h8c, 8s8c, 5d5s, 5d5c, 5s5c, T9s, 76s, AdJd, AhJh, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AhJs }
vs this range I don't get the correct E* to call right. But it would seem a bit mad to just fold top 2 here.
more likely range IMO: as above but inc' some weaker 2pr combos:
Spoiler
Board: J♣5♥8♦ A♠ Q♦
Equity Win Tie
BU 58.06% 58.06% 0.00% { AcQh }
SB 41.94% 41.94% 0.00% { JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, 8h8s, 8h8c, 8s8c, 5d5s, 5d5c, 5s5c, T9s, AdJd, AhJh, Ah8h, Ad5d, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AhJs, Ad8h, Ad8s, Ad8c, Ah8s, Ah8c, Ad5s, Ad5c, Ah5d, Ah5s, Ah5c }
This range does nto include 67s as a river bluff, therefore if we assume villain has weaker 2pr combos then this is an easy call (raising is overplayed IMO)
TLDR =
Spoiler
OTF: x/beh and delayed c-bet OTT or c-bet and look to barrel?
OTT: x/beh for pot control / barrel again for value?
OTR: call / fold (raising seems overplayed IMO)
PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BTN): $6.45
SB: $3.00
BB: $4.43 (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
UTG: $10.52 (VPIP: 25.93, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
MP: $5.05 (VPIP: 28.93, PFR: 20.66, 3Bet Preflop: 14.81, Hands: 123)
CO: $5.00 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has Q♥ A♣
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.12, SB calls $0.10, fold
Flop: ($0.29, 2 players) J♣ 5♥ 8♦
SB checks, Hero bets $0.19, SB calls $0.19
Turn: ($0.67, 2 players) A♠
SB checks, Hero bets $0.32, SB calls $0.32
River: ($1.31, 2 players) Q♦
SB bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25
Spoiler
SB shows 6♥ 7♠ (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 38%, Flop 48%, Turn 18%)
Hero shows Q♥ A♣ (Two Pair, Aces and Queens)
(Pre 62%, Flop 52%, Turn 82%)
Hero wins $3.65
