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SH Zoom QQ, Turn Set in Squeezed Pot

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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $13.28 (53.1 bb)
Hero (BB): $54 (216 bb)
UTG: $39.03 (156.1 bb)
MP: $35.07 (140.3 bb)
CO: $29.47 (117.9 bb)
BTN: $33.25 (133 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q♣: Q♥:
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.70, SB calls $0.60, Hero raises to $3.20, BTN calls $2.50, SB folds

Flop: ($7.10) 8♦: K♦: J♠: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($7.10) Q♠: (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, BTN raises to $8.60, Hero calls $5.10

River: ($24.30) 7♠: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $12.90, Hero???

Preflop: BTN is playing 20/16 in 57 hands. SB is unknown. QQ is a value squeeze here.

Flop: Quite bad board, so I decided to check/call and give up on further streets unimproved. Maybe I should even plan to check/fold because K hits him quite hard imo (true that I block alot of KQ combos), but it seems too weak.

Turn: When he checked back the flop and now when I hit a set, decided to bet 1/2 for value. He could have some draws, maybe two pairs with QJ, maybe AQ. When he raised, I'm not sure what to do. AT and T9 got there, but he would sometimes bet those OTF. Since he could have some club flusdraws and QJ, I decided to call, but I think I should plan to check/fold the river without a FH.

River: Flushdraws completed now, so I think I should check/fold.


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10 replies
YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Pot odds are 3:1 OTR. Call.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Originally posted by YohanN7
Pot odds are 3:1 OTR. Call.

I did, actually. :badteeth: But I can't see which worse hands he should have in reality... AK, KQ, KJ are probably betting the Flop and, as played, not betting the River 100% of the time after all the action. JJ, 88 make some sense if he decided to slowplay them OTF, which will not be the case often at all on this kind of board, the same as KK (which he maybe decided to slowplay pre)


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

It is a backdoor flush so it is not that scary.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Can we push on turn?


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weeman61
Joined: 17.08.2012

very good play m8


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Originally posted by nitrol
Can we push on turn?

I'm not sure which hands do we target with pushing. I don't see what draws he could have when raising. AsKs is betting the Flop, AsQs and AsJs are blocked. AsTs allready beats us, diamond flushdraws would bet the Flop, T8s would probably just call the Turn. The more I think about the spot, the more I believe we are behind OTT, even with such a strong hand and a board that looks drawy.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Originally posted by Alleen86

Originally posted by YohanN7
Pot odds are 3:1 OTR. Call.

I did, actually. :badteeth: But I can't see which worse hands he should have in reality..., JJ, 88 make some sense if he decided to slowplay them OTF...

Never set bluff range to zero. Common big mistake (occurs when one tries to figure out exactly what they could bet like this with) that you can get away with against some players at NL2, not against the average player at NL50+

So you have a hand that even beat some legit hands, get 3:1. Call and expect to lose most of the time, but not all of the time. Trying to figure out what villain is holding (that makes sense to you) is a waste of time in this spot that will only produce a list of hands that crush you.


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

I think you would have to make an Excel to record in these type of situations how often they bluff. However, that is very hard to do because you need a huge sample for that. I think I'd just call off this one because I there are indeed weaker hands although not many but busted draws and 2p you could still target?


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Easiest is to just take notes on showdowns. You don't even need to be in the hand yourself. It takes fairly little time to go through the HH after a 50 min session - even in Zoom. (You need that 5-10 min break anyway:)) This will have nice side benefits. E. g. someone calling on the end with TPTK probably isn't notable. But someone calling with TP, no kicker probably is notable (station). Things like that.


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SuperChompa
Joined: 26.07.2016

Flop: Quite bad board, so I decided to check/call and give up on further streets unimproved. Maybe I should even plan to check/fold because K hits him quite hard imo (true that I block alot of KQ combos), but it seems too weak.

IMO No way to check fold here. AK/KK almost always 4bet against squeeze here.


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