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who does found here a value bet?

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pleasecallit
Joined: 27.08.2009

PokerStars - 25/50 Ante 6 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 97.22 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 13.79, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 30)
MP+2: 66.34 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 12)
Hero (CO): 181.4 BB
BTN: 110.5 BB (VPIP: 41.67, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 12)
SB: 58.96 BB (VPIP: 41.67, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
BB: 78.32 BB (VPIP: 17.98, PFR: 10.23, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 89)
UTG: 148.42 BB (VPIP: 23.44, PFR: 12.70, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 64)
UTG+1: 84.36 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
MP: 100.76 BB (VPIP: 22.92, PFR: 20.83, 3Bet Preflop: 19.05, Hands: 48)

9 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.58 BB) Hero has A♠ A♣

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, UTG+1 calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, MP+2 calls 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 14 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 11.5 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (35.58 BB, 2 players) 7♣ J♠ 3♦
UTG checks, Hero bets 18 BB, UTG calls 18 BB

Turn: (71.58 BB, 2 players) K♦
UTG checks, Hero bets 28 BB, UTG calls 28 BB

River: (127.58 BB, 2 players) 6♦
UTG checks, Hero checks

UTG shows Q♣ Q♥ (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 18%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)
Hero shows A♠ A♣ (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 82%, Flop 92%, Turn 95%)
Hero wins 127.58 BB

this is big 44 dollar

he is regular
so his continue to the 3bet squeeze says to me he got KK which he dont wanna get in thats somewhat more unlikely as he got kk and 4bet

so he got some AKs i think bec he will AKo 4bet fold i predict?
assuming he plays a good GTO or if i got a good GTO understanding :)

because u want to 4bet fold AK and dont wanna get it in like 150bb
and AKs got good playability...so u can call even your opponent got kk and vs qq and jj you can flop ok even if there is no ace or king

so he got either JJ QQ or KK some of the time i say he wont got aK here bec i block it and there is a king and it somewhat unlikely he s there on the river...
he would folded it to flop cbet

i wanted to be a bit polarized with the flop cbet....dont know why exaclty one of the reasons is i was pretty active and it should look like i got aK and dont know what to do beside a bit bet.... dont know it can be suboptimal bec TT can find a fold

i got some J in my range may some JTs or AJo but rather AJo isnstead of JT.

so he got only QQ here JJ i can also discount bec he would have raised turn or donk shoved river

lower sets arent in his range may be 77 but its not that good spot for him imo to call that profitablel pre....


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2 replies
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

First, I have moved your hand to the hand discussion board, because it’s fits better there.
Also, it’s smart to remove the outcome of the hand or put it in a spoiler.

Our villain in the hand looks fishy and I would consider making a thin value bet on the river to get a call of Kx and maybe a hand like QQ as well. A 1/3 pot bet seems big enough for this.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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pleasecallit
Joined: 27.08.2009

Originally posted by SDK1987

Our villain in the hand looks fishy

i think he played the hand very competent....


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