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AK Suited, ran into a pickle at the end. Do you agree with what I did?

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AnXfile378
Joined: 20.07.2017

AK Suited, ran into a pickle at the end. Do you agree with what I did? Sometimes playing vs Short Stacks can be tricky.

Playing on Global Poker
NL10

6 Max Game
NO Hud on this site
No Tracker on this site

Stack Sizes
UTG (HERO) - 214.5 BB
MP - 114 BB
CO - 98.2 BB
BU - 65.5 BB
SB - 117.9 BB
BB - 45.4 BB

HERO Dealt: A♠: K♠:

SB Post .5 BB
BB Post 1 BB
UTG (HERO) Raise 3 BB
MP - Call 3 BB
CO - Fold
BU - Fold
SB - Fold
BB - Call 3 BB

TOTAL POT: 9.5 BB

FLOP
K♦: T♠: 9♣:

BB - Check
UTG (HERO) - Bet 4.7 BB
MP - Fold
BB - Calls 4.7 BB

TOTAL POT: 18.9 BB

TURN
K♦: T♠: 9♣: T♥:

BB - Check
UTG (HERO) - Bets 9.4 BB
BB - Call 9.4 BB

TOTAL POT: 37.7 BB

RIVER
K♦: T♠: 9♣: T♥: Q♣:

THE FINAL BETTING

Spoiler

BB - Bets 29.3 BB
UTG (HERO) - Folds

BB - Mucks

So I took this over to flopzilla to see each street, and even after the two Tens come out, I still have 81% equity in this hand. I really dont think she has a set of 10s based on her check on the Turn. She is a fish and would bet if she had 3 Tens.

Then the Queen comes out on the river and that spooks me when she goes all in. The Queen coming out still gives me equity of 70% based on the range I gave her after she called my preflop raise (QQ-22,ATs+,KQs,JTs,AQo+)

So, of course knowing the soft players on this site, my first thought is she has a Jack and completed a straight... but now im thinking, she also could have had a Queen and got excited about having two pair, Queens and Tens...

That being said, the Pot Odds were 44% to make the call, so should there are 3 things here

1. Pot Odds 44% which would normally not be a call I would make.
2. Equity is 70% so maybe I can make this bet and possibly see she just got a Queen
3. Fold like I did, knowing that these fishy players on Global Poker rarely bluff and I could see her getting all excited about hitting the straight

What would you have done here?

Thanks!


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7 replies
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

It’s too bad we don’t know anything of the BB, but in general I would play the hand the same way with top pair against a unknown to bet on flop and turn for value. The river is a bad card for us, but without looking to the spoiler I would check behind most of the time. I don’t think we can value bet again.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Call call donk is often a super strong line and I don't think you will see that as a bluff very often. Also it makes 0 sense for villain to do this with just Qx on this board vs UTG open and double barrel.

If you believe you have 70% equity this is super easy snap call always. But let's be real:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 9.76% 9.76% 0.00% AsKs
MP3 90.24% 90.24% 0.00% QQ-99, ATs, KTs+, QTs+, J8s+, T7s+, 87s

Put him on a range that calls from BB vs UTG open and a call. Then start thinking what hands he will continue with OTF and OTT. And when he donks you can maybe include some bluffs (like I did with 87s) but most of his hands are quite strong. He has tons of straights, full houses, trips etc...
There is no way you have 70% equity here.


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AnXfile378
Joined: 20.07.2017

Originally posted by la55i
Call call donk is often a super strong line and I don't think you will see that as a bluff very often. Also it makes 0 sense for villain to do this with just Qx on this board vs UTG open and double barrel.

If you believe you have 70% equity this is super easy snap call always. But let's be real:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 9.76% 9.76% 0.00% AsKs
MP3 90.24% 90.24% 0.00% QQ-99, ATs, KTs+, QTs+, J8s+, T7s+, 87s

Put him on a range that calls from BB vs UTG open and a call. Then start thinking what hands he will continue with OTF and OTT. And when he donks you can maybe include some bluffs (like I did with 87s) but most of his hands are quite strong. He has tons of straights, full houses, trips etc...
There is no way you have 70% equity here.

Well yea thats the difference when you add more ranges into the Villians Cold Calling Range. That being said, im almost positive this person doesnt know what a Cold Calling range even is, or is thinking about me being UTG. They are thinking about their hand only so I can see the logic in adding more combos to the villians possible cold calling ranges.

When I use the expanded ranges my Equity is 57.651% on the Flop, 50% on the Turn and and of course 9.75% on the River...

SO, if im thinking about this kind of range, MAYBE then it might have been better for me to put in a 75% bet on the Flop.... BUT if this Queen doesnt come out on the River, im fairly sure I win this hand and she doesnt donk.

From an Equity standpoint, the Q is the only card here that hurts me.. aside from a Jack which would be 15%.. and it came out.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

What range do you use for villain?
I guess you know that every time you bet he will call with a more narrow range and on this board if he is not a huge station his range is already quite tight by the river.
And still I don't see villain doing this as a bluff. For me this looks like a clear fold.


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AnXfile378
Joined: 20.07.2017

This was my range on the villain

QQ-22,ATs+,KQs,JTs,AQo+

But that being said, her bet size screamed flush and that was enough for me even if the equity with this range said I had the edge, most people on this site and especially on NL10 do not bluff the river. Once in a while you see it, but a majority of them dont bluff.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Why would he call call donk with 22-88? Or with AQ when there is K on the board and you have bet flop and turn?


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DonQuishove
Joined: 21.08.2017

Hey ldmariodl28,

I agree with your line and feel it's the more optimal way of playing the hand. I do have to say that I would probably bet slightly bigger on the flop, which would allow me to bet most of opponent's chips on the turn. In a 3-way pot and with a drawy board, I'd want to bet bigger with all my range.

Cheers


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