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AKs without hit anything

 
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Last Post by Klausen16 9 years ago
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Klausen16
Klausen16
Joined: 12.04.2013
Posts: 309
05.09.2017, 05:56

Hi guys,

here is my hand I played:

SB: 97.5 BB (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 12.70, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 65)
BB: 71.5 BB (VPIP: 19.61, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 52)
Hero (CO): 114 BB
BTN: 139 BB (VPIP: 25.40, PFR: 12.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 66)

We play IP vs SB with AKs and he seems to be a normal reg in the first view.

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♣ A♣

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) 2♦ 8♥ 9♣
SB checks, Hero bets 5 BB, SB calls 5 BB

So my question here is what would you recommend to size here? I think I have to bet this like 100% but should I go for just 55% potsize (4BB) or maybe like 6 to 7 BB to look stronger? I think villian will just do not notice here -> so probably I should go for the small bet (4BB) so safe money?

Turn: (17 BB, 2 players) 6♦
SB checks, Hero checks

Here I decide to check behind to avoid running hard vs a strong hand. This increases my chance to improve my hand without spending another money to the pot. Should I go here for a second barrel?
My problem here to figure out the best decision by myself is to give him a range up here. Do we have Std.-Call-Ranges for 6max in the forum here?
Maybe SB goes something like this: 99-22,AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs,KQs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s
If he has something like this he hit something playable by 21%. So maybe I should bet Turn as well, small like 55%?

River: (17 BB, 2 players) J♠
SB bets 10 BB, fold

On the river my aggression is gone I did not hit anything and the hit of him has improved to 29%. If I do not bet Turn I think I need to fold this here? But as well I could call this here assuming that he bets 100% without a hit after my check on Turn.
How I can figure out what is the best play in this marginal hands?

Thanks for ur advice in advance. :f_love:


♦♥♠:c Mein Blog ♦♥♠:c

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SDK1987
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008
Posts: 43,850
05.09.2017, 06:06

I think Cbetting half pot is big enough against most likely a regular. Especially if he likes to fold a lot on Cbets. I don’t think it makes too much different of our fold equity if you bet 3,5bb or 7bb most likely. On the turn, I would check behind as well. I don’t think he will call to often with weaker hands and we can still hit top pair on the river.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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la55i
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013
Posts: 8,896
05.09.2017, 06:27

Edit:
I have to re-think this one ♦
I'll come back to this later.


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insomnia666
insomnia666
Joined: 31.07.2010
Posts: 227
05.09.2017, 13:05

Flop: Not a bad board vs this player, but unfortunately AK beats a lot of hands from his range for check-fold. And our C-bet obv is 100%. I don't like that. The size must be 4bb or 4.5bb. Just the same as the other bets, the value bets. At least some "protection" vs check-raise.
Turn: Obv you can't bet here. You will have enough combos with BDFD for triple barrelling. And ridiculous high fold vs turn check-raise.
River: There are some bluffs, but just not enough. Raise will be ridiculous. Easy fold.


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Klausen16
Klausen16
Joined: 12.04.2013
Posts: 309
06.09.2017, 05:55

Originally posted by SDK1987
On the turn, I would check behind as well. I don’t think he will call to often with weaker hands and we can still hit top pair on the river.

6 Outs for top Pair (turn to river) in 52 - 6 Cards = 6 / 46 = free 13% to improve and get the best hand -> Am I right ?

Originally posted by insomnia666
Flop: Not a bad board vs this player, but unfortunately AK beats a lot of hands from his range for check-fold. And our C-bet obv is 100%. I don't like that.

Yes looks like I put him on the call range:

Assuming he does not call overcards:
I got win 7bb (if I take the better c-bet size) * 0,73 = 5,11bb
+ 7bb * 50 % Equity = 3,5bb
======================
8,61 bb by betting 4,5bb

Means this EV = 4,11 bb which is EV+ ? ♦

Originally posted by insomnia666
The size must be 4bb or 4.5bb. Just the same as the other bets, the value bets. At least some "protection" vs check-raise.

-> Note this.

Originally posted by insomnia666
Turn: Obv you can't bet here. You will have enough combos with BDFD for triple barrelling. And ridiculous high fold vs turn check-raise.
River: There are some bluffs, but just not enough. Raise will be ridiculous. Easy fold.

Ok - Cool :f_grin:


♦♥♠:c Mein Blog ♦♥♠:c

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