Hi guys,
today I went for a special hand. I decide to take the dead money - hopefully noboday will call me.
Hero (SB): 169.5 BB
BB: 149 BB (VPIP: 47.54, PFR: 34.43, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 65)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 20.34, PFR: 11.86, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 61)
MP: 75.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
CO: 131 BB (VPIP: 20.34, PFR: 16.95, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 61)
BTN: 273 BB (VPIP: 34.43, PFR: 19.67, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 61)
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♣ J♦
UTG raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 16 BB, fold, UTG calls 13 BB, fold, fold
All of them seems like normal/unkown player so I will threat them like regs. UTG openrais and 2 calls, I am OOP and AJo is shitty to call. What you think about the 16 BB raise (9BB + 2 * 3BB for the callers + 1BB becuase I play OOP). Maybe it is even better if they are like CO, BU and SB and I am BB. This situation is hard to analyse for me. Do you do this as well?
If UTG fold probably all will fold. If UTG does not - most of the time I am behind and the chance that we got another one calling get higher because the call-size/pot-size-ratio gets better.
UTG OR Range: AA-55,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s
UTG Call Raise Range: JJ-TT,AKo-AQo,KQo,AQs,KQs
UTG 4Bet Range: AA-QQ,AKs
UTG Call Raise Range + UTG 4Bet Range = 5%
UTG OR Range = 13 %
So he will go on with: 5/13 = 38 %
So just with the foldequit I go like: 0,62 * (1,5 + 3 + 3 + 3) BB = 6,51BB
Assuming that I am fukked if he goes on, I loose: 0,38 * 16 BB = 6,08 BB
EV = 6,51 BB - 6,08 BB = 0,43 BB
And if I would do this with like AJs I may have something playable in some situations OTF.
What you think about it?
Flop: (39 BB, 2 players) 4♥ 2♠ 5♣
Hero checks, UTG bets 19 BB, fold
So this time he calls I hit nothing and I do not want to bet here like random vs a strong call. I think I should give up here.
I am not sure if he hits something or bets just because of my check.
How you would play the flop?