Hey!
So this is a hand in which the only doubts I have is how to assess how many bluff does he have on the River, I will show my thought process and see if my "range narrowing" is well done and if you would do it differently. I will not post the outcome of the hand (not even spoiler) as I think that in this specific case it can have a lot of influence in your feedback.
Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $2.09 (104.5 bb)
BB: $5.59 (279.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $1.92 (96 bb)
BTN: $1.95 (97.5 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A♣: K♥:
Hero raises to $0.06, BTN raises to $0.21, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.15
I think preflop is rather standard as I don't feel confortable getting it in against this player who is very tight 3Betting (3% over 90 hands)
Flop: ($0.45) 5♣: 2♥: K♠: (2 players)
I flop pretty well, I check as I think that Vill will Cbet here a nice chunk of time (I now check his stats and see that this player Cbets very little which makes me assume that he does not have many bluff when he Cbets)
Hero checks, BTN checks
Turn: ($0.45) 4♠: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.30, BTN calls $0.30
Turn is a Blank and I now feel very confortable to bet for value as I think that he bet's flop with AA and KK, although he only has 3 and 1 combos of each respectively (I block with my hand and the board) which makes it very unlikely. He calls and at this moment I put him in a range of JJ+ (maybe QQ+) and AK.
River: ($1.05) Q♣: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.72, Hero ??
So, the QQ gets there and I am facing a decision. When I check, showing weakness, I am really susceptible to a bluff bet, the question is how many times does he bet as a bluff and how many does he bet for value? Since his range is, let's assume, JJ+ and AK, I beat 6 Combos(JJ), Chop with 6 Combos(AK) and lose with 7combos (AA, KK, QQ). Another question is, does he really turn his JJ into bluffs? I feel rather tempted assuming that this reggish microstakes villain is not capable of doing that (and he shouldn't, at least in these limits, I think).
So that he has no bluffs and only value bets, which I Chop with 6 of them and lose with 7 of them. Clearly this is a -EV call from my reasoning but I would like to get some feedback on that.
Cheers!
DedoMassivo
