AK TPTK vs raise on flop OOP.

It is an unpleasant situation for sure. In such moments some reads about Villain are really helpful but it seems we do not have any. Most people would just call or fold their entire range CO vs MP on such boards as it is quite hard to balance out our range and callingall hands we wish to continue with has no real downsides. When he min-raise IP he most probably has a set as most people would just call their flush draws and he doesn't even have A9/A3 unless calling extremely loose preflop. From there his line continues to represent what he most often holds here and i think we can find a fold on the turn. Readless we are very rarely good vs such a line and that is how a lot of people on the micros would play their monsters.

This sucks hard. Imho well played. Maybe we can find a fold OTR if board gets paired (this case) or if 3rd club comes.

This basically looks ok to me. I think theoretically that river should be called (didn't check this so can't be 100% sure), but at the micros we probably should make some adjustments. I feel like raises in general are a bit too value heavy and especially that minraise screams "please call me, I have nuts". So maybe you could let this one go OTR.

Minraises usually mean they got something, often TP, OP (obv not in this case since there is an ace OTF) or better. FDs not so often actually. I think he can have AQ and AT here some of the time, but problem is, he aslo does have sets and two pairs in his range + AK of course (split) .. it's quite close OTR.

La55i: What exactly do u mean by "theoretically" ?

Id call , a min raise can mean a set or 2 pair but it's usually followed up by a close to or pot sized bet ott and then id expect river to be bigger at these stakes with a full house or nutted hand. It feels like he has Ax type hand and is caught between value betting and blocker betting and unsure. It's possible he has AJ and is unsure of the 9 and he has some possible missed draws. Id call and make a note of what his sizing means and then we can make our adjustment accordingly vs villain in future hands.

Originally posted by msnek
La55i: What exactly do u mean by "theoretically" ?

Sorry for the late reply, I was on a short vacation.

I meant that if villain's range would be balanced here and he bets that 60% of the pot, our minimum defending frequency should be roughly 63% of our range.
As I said I didn't check this but I believe at least some TPTK hands should be in our defending range "theoretically". But since I don't think villain is going to bet the river with perfectly balanced range, we can make some adjustments.

La55i: thanks for the answer, it makes me feel good I understood it the way you just elaborated makes sense