Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

Flopped set vs very wet board 3 way.

5 Posts
5 Users
0 Reactions
1,031 Views
Zire99
Joined: 23.09.2016

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 126.2 BB (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 151)
SB: 148.8 BB (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 23.91, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 49)
BB: 148.6 BB (VPIP: 18.60, PFR: 13.95, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 45)
Hero (UTG): 103 BB
MP: 132.4 BB (VPIP: 26.73, PFR: 17.82, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, Hands: 104)
CO: 43.4 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T♠ T♣

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.6 BB, fold

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) T♥ 8♥ Q♣
SB checks, Hero bets 7.2 BB, BTN calls 7.2 BB, fold

Turn: (24.4 BB, 2 players) A♣
Hero bets 23.4 BB, BTN raises to 116 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 69.4 BB and is all-in

River: (210 BB, 2 players) 9♣

Spoiler

Hero shows T♠ T♣ (Three of a Kind, Tens)
(Pre 54%, Flop 74%, Turn 23%)
BTN shows J♠ K♠ (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 46%, Flop 26%, Turn 77%)
BTN wins 201.2 BB

The call on the turn is tough, but I think I priced myself in here. Sure, I don't have the pot odds vs KJ. But if his range is KJs and a single combo of say AQ or any flush draw the call is already okay. (J9 would have raised flop, AA pre flop, and I don't see why QQ would not raise flop, but turn).

Do I raise the flop or check/call? I don't like getting raised here, but there are also a lot of draws on the board I don't want to give a free card to.
Do I check/call turn based on his sizing?


Reply
Quote
4 replies
BingoWings
Joined: 14.04.2017

Turn is a clear value bet imo , your going to run into spots like this that your not thrilled with. But calling turn is a far better option than folding. Even Vs KJ i think it only works out at like -17bb ev on the call and once you add in some AQ 88 maybe some strong combo draws he's turned into a bluff it just becomes a clear call on the turn imho.

Your actually a slight favorite 52/48 vs the following range. Which contains 50% AQ combos and 2 bluff combo draws.
QQ,88,KJs,AdQd,AhQh,KcTc,JcTc,AsQd,AsQh,AsQc,AcQd,AcQh,AcQs

You can even give villain all combos of AA and your still running at 40% equity. Id expect you to have the 30% or close enough to call though.


Reply
Quote
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Bet flop, bet turn. When villain shoves it is an easy call. There are several draws possible, he could have a lower set or 2pair also.
You have to win this hand about 33% to make a profitable call. The range provided by BingoWings seems ok, a bit tight though (notice that it doesn't contain any bluffs) and still we have more than enough equity to call here. We can actually add all of the aces, take all AQo hands away and cut the amount of lower sets from 3 combos to 2 combos and we still have a call.


Reply
Quote
msnek
Joined: 01.10.2008

I am calling and closing my eye OTT. He can have two pairs (AT, AQ), he doesn't really have better (and worse) sets THAT often since he only called us OTF - ok, aces maybe a bit more often than the rest. He can also have some combo draws since the board is really connected. Ofc he can also have a str8.


Reply
Quote
Fanko
Joined: 24.08.2010

Turn sizing is wrong, call is optimistic at best.

He never has anything but nuts when u bet potsize, just so u know.


Reply
Quote