KQs Do you call the River pot bet?

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Last Post by la55i 9 years ago

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AnXfile378

Joined: 20.07.2017

Posts: 88

26.11.2017, 06:26 0

This was a tough hand vs a recreational player would love some feedback on. I think I made a couple mistakes here, but ill let you guys be the judge

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database

The villian here is a 73/9 through 250 hands.

Other stat to note, he cbets 64% of the time.

NL Holdem $0.02(BB)
BB ($2.56)
UTG ($2)
HJ ($4.54)
HERO ($2)
BTN ($2.14)
SB ($4)

Dealt to Hero Q♠ K♠

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $0.07 (Rem. Stack: 4.47), HERO Calls $0.07 (Rem. Stack: 1.93), BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds

Flop ($0.17) A♥ 8♠ 8♣
HJ Checks, HERO Bets $0.13 (Rem. Stack: 1.80), HJ Calls $0.13 (Rem. Stack: 4.34)

So the reason I bet here was because I expected to get him to fold with a bet on this board since he cbets most of the time. To my dismay he called, but thats ok because I know I can just fold this hand on the turn.

Turn ($0.43) A♥ 8♠ 8♣ Q♣
HJ Checks, HERO Checks

So I decided to check here not expecting him to call with anything worse than Queens. His call on the flop surprises me, but then again I think at this point im completely lost on this hand.

River ($0.43) A♥ 8♠ 8♣ Q♣ 4♥
HJ Bets $0.41 (Rem. Stack: 3.93)

Here is a situation where I can look back now and wonder, should I have called this bet or folded. Why did he call my flop bet? Was he on a draw originally? Why would he check the turn? What the hell is he doing?? What are you doing in this spot vs this type of player.. Are you calling his bet or folding.

Spoiler

HERO Calls $0.41 (Rem. Stack: 1.39)
HJ shows Q♦ Q♥

HJ wins $1.19

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1 reply

la55i

Joined: 27.01.2013

Posts: 8,896

27.11.2017, 09:12 0

The biggest mistake I see here is that you look too much at the stats.. Normally 250 hands is a bit too little to get an accurate feeling about the flop cbet stat, I would like to have at least 500 hands. So if villain plays another 250 hands his cbet% might change easily even 10% to one way or other.
You also have to note that his pfr is 9%, which means he has had significantly less cbet spots that normal, so this cbet% is very inaccurate.

So if we forget the cbet stats, I still think you can make a smaller stab OTF as an exploitative move. After he calls on this board I think checking the turn is reasonable.
OTR when he pots it, I think calling isn't terrible but if we look at his VPIP/PRF it suggests villain is quite passive at least preflop.

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