SNG 6max 0.25€ T9s limp pot

Pre-flop I would most likely still isolate with a suited hand like T9s. As played his shove makes no sense, but it’s tough to give him a good range. Read less I would fold this even with the outs we most likely have to hit a straight or flush, but sometimes we are almost drawing dead if he has a lucky FH.

Cheers,
SDK1987

The question on this flop is: how many outs do we really have? If Villain hit an FH we are nearly drawing dead and only the Q♣ and 7♣ can help us (so, 2 outs). If he hit some lucky trips, we indeed can draw to a str8 or the flush, but we have discounted outs. If Villain holds 78s or 78o every 7 which gives us the str8 is also crushing us because it gives Villain the FH. Or let´s say Villain holds A8o or A8s and the A♣ comes on turn or river. He hit our flush but this gives Villain the FH. We are only slight favourite against a high pocket pair (about 55 %), besides, Villain could hold 2 clubs as well with a higher card or any club which blocks our flushdraw (lowers our chance to hit the flush). So: We actually don´t know how many outs we have. Besides, according to my personal experience fishes do such non-sense bets like this when they hit. We are in a limped pot. This means also that the chance that somebody holds an 8 is increased.

Another factors are 1) we are nearing the bubble and 2) We still have a healthy stack. So: We are NOT in chip-EV-mode, we have risk premium here. That means: We need more equity to risk our chips than in cash game or at the beginning of an MTT. In order to risk our chips we need about 60 % equity at least! Do we have it? NO!

Conclusion: We must fold here!