AKo

I guess we need to think about how many worse hands would shove here OTT.

FD is unlikely, I think, because Ah, Kh and Jh are accounted for already. He could have QhTh, I suppose, but then he's made the nut straight already and so has us beat right now. If he defends all QT, then that's 16 combos.

We are obviously blocking some sets with our hand, so only 5 are possible, and I think that villain would 4-bet preflop with KK or AA. Therefore, I expect the only sets to be the three combinations of JJ.

He could call our preflop 3-bet with the other 4 combos of AK. Maybe he could also defend with AJ (6 combos) and KJ (6 combos).

So I see 19 likely combos that beat us and raise here, 4 likely combos we are splitting with, and 12 likely combos that we beat.

I haven't computed the EV, but 31% feels like enough equity against that range.

Would also be interesting to see % of how often villain re-raises all in on turn.

I wouldn't call with even QTs from CO vs a 3bet, so I believe QTo should very often be out of a reg's calling range. QQ+ and most likely AK also should 4bet pre. So only reasonable hand that beats us is JJ and maybe QTs with some frequency. Not very many combos. But villain could call pre with AJ and maybe KJs.

I would call here..

Originally posted by JazBenz
Would also be interesting to see % of how often villain re-raises all in on turn.

600 hands is probably wayyy too small sample to see any accurate turn stat. In my experience we often need 500 hands or more to get somewhat accurate flop cbet%. Turn stats need ofc more and raises happen so rarely that we would probably need thousands of hands.

Originally posted by la55i
I wouldn't call with even QTs from CO vs a 3bet, so I believe QTo should very often be out of a reg's calling range. QQ+ and most likely AK also should 4bet pre. So only reasonable hand that beats us is JJ and maybe QTs with some frequency. Not very many combos. But villain could call pre with AJ and maybe KJs.

I would call here..

If he’s not defending many/any QT combos, then it’s a clear call. I was assuming he might have some.