KK ~ 3bet pot, river spot

I would probably start betting already OTF. Make it small. Villain probably has those pocket pairs and also some big broadways. You can get calls from those pockets. A fourth heart wouldn't be a great card because 1) he might still have some Ah hands and 2) if he doesn't have hearts, that will probably be a action killer.

As played OTR I would go with a thin value bet and fold vs a raise. I wouldn't be thrilled to check call especially if he makes a big bet and check/fold seems too weak.

Originally posted by la55i
As played OTR I would go with a thin value bet and fold vs a raise.

I totally agree with this. I was check/calling in this kind of spots for a long time, but recently I started betting small bets rather than check/calling, because a) I still have a FE/can get called with a weaker hand, b) if you want to check/call then you are going to put some money in anyway and his bet is probably gonna be bigger than your thin value bet would be so you will end up risking more money than if you were bet/folding.

Definitely agree with the small bet, pretty disappointed in myself for not thinking.
Lassie, you betting 1/3 all streets then?

Bettin 1/3 on every street sounds reasonable.

What hands are we targeting with the small bet on the river?

You are right that there are not many. But as played if we then check again OTR I think our hand looks quite weak and we risk getting bluffed out of the hand. I wouldn't want to check call or check fold so then an underbet should work fine.

Well said guys, thanks for your opinion. Always a pleasure to learn from you.

Originally posted by la55i
You are right that there are not many. But as played if we then check again OTR I think our hand looks quite weak and we risk getting bluffed out of the hand. I wouldn't want to check call or check fold so then an underbet should work fine.

What hands will bet on river if we check?

What hands would you call here if villain bets big?

This is not an answer...

It is a question that is meant to lead you to correct answer
How many hands do we have in our range that will play like this and then happily call a bit bet from villain. I would say there are not many. If we faced a pot size bet with our hand I think it would be a tough spot for us.
So if we don't want to check call, check fold then? After we check the flop, bet the turn small and check again OTR, I would assume villain to take a stab pretty often. So no check folding either? What should we do then?
We can bet small. Betting small gets us thin value from JJ,TT and so on, and at the same time we make it a lot less likely that villain tries to bluff us. In case we get raised and have to fold, we have set the price.

To answer your question. I believe our line looks weak and after we play like this on this board runout we might even give up with KK,AA vs a large bet, so it might make sense for villain to take a stab very frequently.

I am not convinced that JJ, TT would pay another bet on river....
And I do not see much reason in investing more...

Those hands might call a thing value bet, or then might not. But if we check, villain might also turn those hands into bluffs. I don't see much reason to invest anything more either but I would still hate to check fold this after playing the hand so weakly.

Previously I asked you what hands you would call if villain bets big OTR. Now I believe you answered that you are not happy to invest anything more into this hand? I think the line hero took here also tells that story to villain. And a good villain will probably bet pretty big pretty often.

But the line you choose to use is totally up to you.
I personally do not think that check flop, bet turn, check river is the best line here. So imo we do not put too much energy into figuring out what is the best play OTR after we have taken the second best line overall.

I do not agree that villain will bet a wide range here. Look at the board.

Well that is your opinion. I might very well be wrong but when I look at the action I think hero doesn't represent a very strong hand and if I was villain I would be stabbing a lot. Especially when we think about the ranges. UTG 4betting range should have something like QQ+,AK and maybe some AQ hands as a bluff. I would say that Qx hands should bet the river for value. So when I think about hero's range here it is most likely KK+,AK and big part of that range would be folding vs a big bet. A big part of that range also crushes BTN if we see a showdown. So it makes sense for BTN to turn weak showdown value hands into bluffs because 1) he is behind too often 2) UTG plays his hand face up and is folding...

As I said I might very well be wrong and you can disagree if you want to. But if you want to continue this discussion then I think it would be great if you wrote down your opinion a bit better.

Preflop: At 120BB deep I think 2.2-2.4X is big enough. 2.80 makes it way too expensive to 4bet bluff.

Flop: The optimal strategy on Mono Flops in general according to solvers is to play super passively, like betting only 10-15% of your range, that's mostly for single raised pots though so im not entirely sure about 4bet pots. But you can't go wrong checking.

Given his super high 3bet %, I think there's a good chance he's some aggro fish so I actually think he could have all QX here. You can check to induce bluffs, or bet and fire 3 streets, either one is fine.

Turn: As played you are ahead like 95%+ of the time when he checks the Turn. His most likely hands at this point are midpairs, and the occasional weak QX. I would bet 80% pot here.

River: Given flop action and the fact that you have 2 blockers to KQ, and AQ usually bets Flop especially at this limit, I think he has a mid pair here very often. Midpairs also fold much less often when the top card pairs. I would bet 2/3 pot here.