Top pair in 3bet pot

I think this is well played. On this board I don't see villain check calling with that many weaker hands. So I think betting wouldn't make that much sense.

I think this is well played. On this board I don't see villain check calling with that many weaker hands. So I think betting wouldn't make that much sense.

Pretty close at the first look (betting or checking), but i just think we going to lose to mutch with that cback. We have perfect blockers and his range is weak with this river check.

He can't have flush (simply he is push the river with it), also can't have any 9x and we have all the flush and straight.

After river check his range:
TT-AA. QJ, QT, TJ, AQ, QK (I only put there value hands)

We can use our blockers to make a realy profitable bluff there + if he is badreg he can fold his total range, the worst thing can happen he is calling with sets and fold all 2p and stronger Q (it's still make it +ev). So just go ahead and push the river.

Hmmm yea I might have looked at this too quickly. What you say is true, we might be able to make villain fold a lot and our shove might become +EV. Villain calling with all sets still seems reasonable to me. Then if he is a station he might call with some 2 pair hands which wouldn't be nice but still I would say is is probably +EV.
One problem though. I think villain can also have AK hands (12 combos). If he check call with all AK and sets and maybe some combos of 2pair we might not be good anymore.

One problem though. I think villain can also have AK hands (12 combos)

I just can't see he is checking river with AK to make us bluff (it's scarry turn river and hero check b a lot of hand)

Yea but if villain shoves, with what weaker hands hero could call with? Occasionally hero has some 9x hands that villain beats but then hero can have some flushes too and he loses. If hero doesn't have that many weaker hands that could call, then it might make more sense to check and hope hero ships it either as a bluff or with a weaker value hand with some frequency.

So I don't know if checking the river with AK would be so weird that we should exclude all AK combos from his range.