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BvB ATs; Can I fold TopPair OTF?

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ben002
Joined: 03.03.2018

Hi! :f_drink:

Here is another hand I played.
I usually tend to bet, raise and call too much. So here is a hand were I think that the nittiest move might have been the best and that I actually should have folded my TopPair OTF. I'd like to know other thoughts.

$0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

UTG: $5.65
MP: $5.00
CO: $5.17
BTN: $5.00
SB: $5.16
Hero (BB): $5.19

SB posts SB $0.02, Hero posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A♠ T♠

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.10, Hero calls $0.05

Flop: ($0.20, 2 players) 3♠ A♥ 6♥
SB bets $0.28, Hero calls $0.28

Turn: ($0.76, 2 players) 5♦
SB bets $1.06, Hero calls $1.06

River: ($2.88, 2 players) 8♣
SB bets $3.72 and is all-in, fold

SB wins $2.76
Rake paid $0.12

Villain
I had 99 hands on villain with VPIP 17 / PFR 12 and some other stats:


Although the sample size is pretty small, I think we already can safely say that he seems to be the more value oriented guy and most likely not very sensitive to the topic of blind steal/defence. I can't be very certain about his Cbet-behavior though.
Based on his stealing-score I give him a roughly 26% pre-flop range like this:

Spoiler

Thoughts

If we assume, that his value range is everything at least as good as AJ, he has (after removal) 35 value combos (AJ+;A6s;A3s;AA;66;33) which all beat me with little chance to improve. If he bluffs at all I think he might not bluff with anything worse then a flush-draw on this board. But most of his flush-draw-combos are already canceled out by the A♥, which leaves him with only 18 potential bluffs, with still good equity against my hand. So this looks already very dim. Question is if the turn card could change anything:

If it is a :heart: and he wasn't on a flush draw it might stop his action, but I am beat nonetheless (except for T♥ maybe). If he was on a flush-draw, :heart: is also bad of course.

If it's a blank he should continue barreling with his value hands. He might stop barreling with a draw but given that these only make 1/3 of his range already, this seems quite unlikely. I most likely would have to give up.

If it is an ace it might look good at first glance but it would also improve his whole value range to better trips and full-houses.

So the only cards which really could help me are T♦/T♣ and even then he still has some sets in his range or could complete a flush OTR.

So if the assumption about his betting range is correct, this should be a clear fold OTF.

Questions

1. This specific villain didn't seem to bet a lot OTF. But I didn't have any data about his Flop-Cbetting behavior. Is it justified to assume that he would also Cbet rather value-heavy? Would you make any flop-play assumptions at all, given the small sample size?

2. Are the preflop- and flop-betting-ranges I gave villain anywhere near realistic?

3. If they are, do you agree that I should have folded OTF? If they are not, do you still agree?

4. Can we generally assume that betting ranges become more value-heavy on a two colored board with an Ace of the two-carded-color because of removal effects (at least at the limits, where people don't think so much about balancing ranges)?


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2 replies
DecMate
Joined: 25.01.2009

Here's my 2cent.
Don't spend so long on spots that don't frequently occur. i appreciate the effort and the in-depth analysis, but a spot where someone overbets the pot not just once but TWICE is an extremely rare occurrence for the limit you're playing (and I'm playing), so breaking it down and sussing a spot like this out will only help you 1/30k hands, there are much better spots to analyse where can actually gain some value.

As to the breakdown, you're sample size on villain is tiny. Making adjustments from such a small sample size could actually do more harm to your game then good.
Personally without any dynamic in place I would just give up on the turn. This line doesn't happen often enough to give it a second thought despite it being susceptible to exploitation. But being exploited and having balanced ranges and whatnot isn't a worry at these limits.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

DecMate pretty much said all I wanted to say.
Flop I would still call because we have that BDFD to go with the top pair but OTT I would already consider folding. These overbets are rare as said above.
I also want to stress that making any adjustments based on 100 hands might do more harm than good.


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