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Question on basics

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mjez1
Joined: 29.06.2015

Here is a hand

Spoiler

PokerStars, $0.49 + $0.06 - Hold'em No Limit - 700/1,400 (175 ante) - 9 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: 40,591 (29 bb)
UTG+1: 14,802 (11 bb)
MP: 31,681 (23 bb)
MP+1 (Hero): 31,532 (23 bb)
LP: 19,739 (14 bb)
CO: 23,099 (16 bb)
BU: 28,812 (21 bb)
SB: 36,287 (26 bb)
BB: 26,974 (19 bb)

Pre-Flop: (3,675) Hero is MP+1 with Q A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls 1,400, 1 fold, Hero raises to 4,200, 3 players fold, SB calls 3,500, 1 fold, UTG+1 3-bets to 14,627 (all-in), MP+1 (Hero) folds, SB calls 10,427

Flop: (36,429) J 7 A (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (36,429) T (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (36,429) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 36,429

Showdown:
UTG+1 shows 8 8 (two pair, Eights and Sevens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 52%, Flop: 61%, Turn: 14%, River: 0%)

SB shows K T (two pair, Tens and Sevens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 48%, Flop: 39%, Turn: 86%, River: 100%)

SB wins 36,429

If I wouldn't know he had 88 I would put him on this range

Spoiler

So his equity would be 60% and mine would be 40%.
We know he had 88 so his equity is even lower it's 52% and mine 48%

For simplicity I expect SB to always fold.

Odds are 28.6%

Does this mean that my fold here is quite a big mistake and I should call here? Because my equity is 48% which is bigger than the given odds?


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4 replies
Constantin11
Joined: 16.08.2012

Yeah, after what you did you can't fold there even 76s

Edit: maybe 76s vs 88 only is a fold ofc, but I mean vs that range... It's just a pot odds call.

Edit 2: maybe it is a fold tho, you have 25.93% equity


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mjez1
Joined: 29.06.2015

:thinking: Your answer is pretty confusing


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Constantin11
Joined: 16.08.2012

Lets take your numbers and do some math

The pot is 22502 and you need to call 10427 to win a pot of 32929, therefore you need to win back 31,66% (Maybe I missed a few chips since you said that the pot odds are 28,6%, but the reasoning remains the same).

Because your hand vs range equity is bigger than 31.66%, you loose money by making the fold.
You could think that by making the fold you saved 10427.
By making the call you would have 32929x0.4062=13375. So that fold did cost you 2948 chips... Or more if your pot odds were the right ones.

I hope this clears things up a bit.

Cheers


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mjez1
Joined: 29.06.2015

Very well explained, thanks man it helped me a lot :f_thumbsup:


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