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(FR) 87o - bluff OTR?

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pguest
Joined: 01.04.2009

$0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players

SB: 64.6 BB (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 15.47, 3Bet Preflop: 3.90, Hands: 465)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.04, PFR: 9.61, 3Bet Preflop: 4.78, Hands: 1,497)
UTG: 129 BB (VPIP: 9.13, PFR: 7.16, 3Bet Preflop: 3.52, Hands: 3,889)
UTG+1: 186.6 BB (VPIP: 12.59, PFR: 9.86, 3Bet Preflop: 4.08, Hands: 145)
MP: 66.2 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 3.08, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 65)
MP+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 19.34, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 8.99, Hands: 277)
MP+2: 94.2 BB (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
CO: 110.8 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
Hero (BTN): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 7♣ 8♥
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.6 BB, SB calls 2.2 BB, fold
Thoughts:

Spoiler

not my standard OR range from the BU, for sure, but the players had a FTS of 79% (11/14) and 100% (10/10).

Flop: (6.2 BB, 2 players) K♠ A♥ 9♣
Thoughts:

Spoiler

I wouldn't cbet this flop with at least some equity or a mediocre made hand. From the SB standpoint, my range is wide.
Apart from that, if he folds a lot to steal, the range that he calls is supposed to be strong.

SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (6.2 BB, 2 players) 6♥
Thoughts:

Spoiler

I picked up some equity here, villain bet so small, that I decided to call IP and see the river.

SB bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

River: (12.2 BB, 2 players) 8♠
SB checks, Hero bets 7 BB, fold
Thoughts:

Spoiler

With a busted draw, not sure if I should try to bluff this spot, but villain checked to me and that looked so weak...
A good tp would've bet OTR, I think, and my pair didn't have much showdown value.

Spoiler

Hero wins 11.6 BB


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2 replies
Netgames999
Joined: 12.11.2006

IMO SB doesn't look super tight for FR. His gap between PFR and VPIP is pretty small. Most likely only PPs+some suited broadways. OTF I would take a stab. To get PPs and gutshots to fold.

As played, Turn is fine. You are obv. planning to bluff the river if SB checks to you. I wonder what cards would you choose for a river bluff?

OTR if you bet, you want better hands to fold or worse to call. Let's look at folds. Maybe some TT, JJ, or QQ. But they probably 3bet preflop. 9x, I don't see many in his call preflop + stab turn + check river range. A9, K9s and 98s have two pair. Leaves only T9s that I would see in his preflop calling range. Kx, seems somewhat reasonable that you could have some. But do they all fold. Highly doubt that. Ax, no way he is folding these. But they would often bet the river.
Overall, he has a good amount of very unlikely hands that he folds and a good part that he would call.
Looks to me like you are donating money.
Maybe calls from weaker hands can offset that. I don't see any.

I lean towards xbehind.


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sdf256
Joined: 21.07.2016

I would cbet the flop, because I assume calling range from SB to be usually PPs + some suited connectors. So this board is pretty good to cbet against that range in my eyes.

OTR I would only x back. You hit a pair, so now you do have some showdown value.


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