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AK OOP against a passive opponent

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Bernasconi
Joined: 04.08.2006

PF: Standard open raise
F: TPTK standard half-pot bet.
T: Not the best card but I expect him to raise me if he has the 6 which he does not.
R: I am not sure if I should bet TPTK on the river here. The 5d is a blank on this board. I am better than any busted draws (which will fold) but I can be called by worse Ax and maybe Jx. He could have two pair as well.

Should I just check on the river on such a board? Or what did go wrong here?

888 Poker - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 200 BB (VPIP: 13.42, PFR: 4.91, 3Bet Preflop: 1.25, Hands: 535)
Hero (MP+1): 109.5 BB
CO: 107 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 3)
BTN: 140.5 BB (VPIP: 41.19, PFR: 3.16, 3Bet Preflop: 0.93, Hands: 541)
SB: 107 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
BB: 93 BB (VPIP: 60.87, PFR: 4.35, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
UTG: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 66.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 103)
UTG+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 2.44, PFR: 2.44, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 41)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♣ K♠

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 2 BB

Flop: (10.5 BB, 3 players) A♥ 6♣ J♣
UTG checks, Hero bets 5 BB, BTN calls 5 BB, fold

Turn: (20.5 BB, 2 players) 6♠
Hero bets 10 BB, BTN calls 10 BB

River: (40.5 BB, 2 players) 5♦
Hero bets 20 BB, BTN calls 20 BB

Spoiler

Hero shows A♣ K♠ (Two Pair, Aces and Sixes)
(Pre 74%, Flop 18%, Turn 9%)
BTN shows A♦ J♠ (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks)
(Pre 26%, Flop 82%, Turn 91%)
BTN wins 75.5 BB


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8 replies
Netgames999
Joined: 12.11.2006

PF: Standard open raise

No and no. Not standard and not open. You have a limper. Go for 4.5bb or 5bb.

F: TPTK standard half-pot bet.

You have two weak players in your hand. Make them pay! Lots of weaker Ax, FD and Jx. 75% will often still get paid.

He could have two pair as well.

You have a two pair as well. Only AJ is a better two pair.

In my opinion, against weak players it's an easy river bet.


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Bernasconi
Joined: 04.08.2006

So you suggest bigger PF and F bets but the rest is fine in your oppinion? I try to be not result orientied especially in this case. Seems like I have to adjust my PF and F bet sizes. Thank you for your valuable feedback.


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

i might even size it to play for stacks here. sometimes you lose to AJ and 6x but i expect a 41 vpip player to have all the Ax in their range


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Netgames999
Joined: 12.11.2006

size it to play for stacks here

That's what I would go for with these runouts.


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Andrepipocado
Joined: 31.01.2018

Originally posted by Bernasconi
So you suggest bigger PF and F bets but the rest is fine in your oppinion? I try to be not result orientied especially in this case. Seems like I have to adjust my PF and F bet sizes. Thank you for your valuable feedback.

I fully agree with the bet on the 3 streets, we charge of all the smaller Ax and some Jx, weak players do not drop that type of hand in that spot. I would just change the sizes of the bets, just to get the most out of these weak players.


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pguest
Joined: 01.04.2009

Pre is 5bb. 4bb for an iso raise and 1bb per limper.

I would have betted bigger OTF, something between 1/2 and 2/3 OTT and smallish OTR (against a CS) or check/call (against a TAG).


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pguest
Joined: 01.04.2009

Postflop stats would help here, IMHO. Some passive players are callish all the way through, but some are loose pre and play fit or fold pos.

So, I don't try to guess postflop behaviour based on preflop stats. Unless I have a very specific read on villain going to SD with 2nd best frequently.


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