Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $10 (100 bb)
BB: $22.51 (225.1 bb)
UTG: $10.27 (102.7 bb)
MP: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
CO: $8.77 (87.7 bb)
Hero (BTN): $11.53 (115.3 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with J♥: J♦:
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.30, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.90, 2 folds, MP raises to $2, Hero calls $1.10
Flop: ($4.15) Q♠: 8♦: 3♣: (2 players)
MP bets $1.39, Hero calls $1.39
Turn: ($6.93) 7♥: (2 players)
MP bets $6.76, Hero calls $6.76
River: ($20.45) 4♥: (2 players)
I have a mixed strategy preflop with JJ. Cold call or 3bet 50/50 I guess.
After a 4bet I get around 2:1 odds, which means I need 33% equity to call.
Equity Win Tie
MP2 63.81% 63.60% 0.21% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
BB 36.19% 35.98% 0.21% { JJ }
Which is close, assuming some bluffs it gets better.
After Turn bet it's still the same range I guess. Don't see many checks. More likely that Vilain's whole range bet this 1/4-1/3 PSB.
Board: 8♦Q♠3♣
Equity Win Tie
MP2 57.51% 57.51% 0.00% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
BB 42.49% 42.49% 0.00% { JdJh }
Turn is a blank and Villain jams PSB, which asks a question:
Am I 33% or better ahead.
If he doesn't change his range:
Board: 8♦Q♠3♣ 7♥
Equity Win Tie
MP2 53.67% 53.67% 0.00% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
BB 46.33% 46.33% 0.00% { JdJh }
If he reduces AK combos by 50%:
Board: 8♦Q♠3♣ 7♥
Equity Win Tie
MP2 75.68% 75.68% 0.00% { QQ+, AdKd, AhKh, AhKd, AsKd, AcKd }
BB 24.32% 24.32% 0.00% { JdJh }
Since I didn't have any notes, it should most likely be a fold.
My main question though:
Is it more likely for villain to use this line for value or bluff?
I also assume that people tend to use different bet sizing OTT when they have QQ+ to get thin value from hands like JJ, AQ.
There fore, I think his range is more like this:
Board: 8♦Q♠3♣ 7♥
Equity Win Tie
MP2 55.00% 55.00% 0.00% { AdAh, AdAs, KdKh, KdKs, QdQh, AdKd, AhKh, AhKd, AsKd, AcKd }
BB 45.00% 45.00% 0.00% { JdJh }
which makes this a call (since I need 33% equity to call).
