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Is this Overbet too thin?!

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ImABadReg
Joined: 27.11.2018

Today I played a hand that I thought was worth sharing.
Villain is a pretty competent player.

Dealt to Hero [Td Th]
LOJACK: folds
HIJACK: folds
Hero in CUTOFF: raises $0.03 to $0.05
BUTTON: folds
Villain in SMALL BLIND: raises $0.15 to $0.20
BIG BLIND: folds
Hero in CUTOFF: calls $0.15

FLOP [9s 2h 7h]
Villain: checks
Hero: bets $0.32 (76,2% pot)
Villain: calls $0.32

TURN [9s 2h 7h] [Qd]
Villain: checks
Hero: checks

RIVER [9s 2h 7h Qd] [Qc]
Villain: checks

I think this hand is played pretty standard so far. Now on the river, I was thinking about the best possible hands villain could have in this spot and his range looked pretty capped. I think my pockets 10s are definitely the winning hand here almost always. Furthermore, when I overbet this river, my hand looks so bluffy, because what am I really representing here? A strong queen, flopped sets, and two pair would have bet the turn almost always. The only hand that I would check here is pocket queens, but there is exactly one combination of that on the river. Therefore, I was trying to induce villain to hero call me, and this turned out to work in this specific scenario.

Hero: bets $1.18 (111,3% pot)
Villain: calls $1.18

SHOW DOWN
Hero: shows [Td Th] (two pair, Queens and Tens)
Villain: mucks hand (Had 7d 8d)
Hero collected $3.30 from pot

My questions here are: Is this overbet +EV in the long turn against a decent reg? Or should I have picked a smaller size on the river?
Is there something like a profitable merged overbet? I would love to here your opinions.


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3 replies
MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

Would you really check back QQ on that turn ? I'd certainly not !
I don't see the point of overbetting here for value frankly. What are you expecting people to call you with ?


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with 3rd pair for example?!

I actually like the overbet in this spot for the reasons op mentioned. But I'd also be interested in a sound opinion (other than floxxys stupid comment) whether this is max ev long run and best range-wise.


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MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

Yeah, because that's sooo well known, at NL2 they call an overbet lighter than a normal bet because they think about what you are representing and level themselves hard so much they brain, sure, I'm so stupid for not having seen that, I'm really sorry. And he has so many third pair in this spot it's so clear he's gonna call with that indeed.

Maybe you could teach me how to play if you aren't too occupied with solving a mathematical conjecture already solved, my new nice and polite friend. We'd have so much fun together I'm sure. =)

I don't even know the guy and first thing he insults me for a random comment. That forum is really surprising sometimes


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