Today I played a hand that I thought was worth sharing.
Villain is a pretty competent player.
Dealt to Hero [Td Th]
LOJACK: folds
HIJACK: folds
Hero in CUTOFF: raises $0.03 to $0.05
BUTTON: folds
Villain in SMALL BLIND: raises $0.15 to $0.20
BIG BLIND: folds
Hero in CUTOFF: calls $0.15
FLOP [9s 2h 7h]
Villain: checks
Hero: bets $0.32 (76,2% pot)
Villain: calls $0.32
TURN [9s 2h 7h] [Qd]
Villain: checks
Hero: checks
RIVER [9s 2h 7h Qd] [Qc]
Villain: checks
I think this hand is played pretty standard so far. Now on the river, I was thinking about the best possible hands villain could have in this spot and his range looked pretty capped. I think my pockets 10s are definitely the winning hand here almost always. Furthermore, when I overbet this river, my hand looks so bluffy, because what am I really representing here? A strong queen, flopped sets, and two pair would have bet the turn almost always. The only hand that I would check here is pocket queens, but there is exactly one combination of that on the river. Therefore, I was trying to induce villain to hero call me, and this turned out to work in this specific scenario.
Hero: bets $1.18 (111,3% pot)
Villain: calls $1.18
SHOW DOWN
Hero: shows [Td Th] (two pair, Queens and Tens)
Villain: mucks hand (Had 7d 8d)
Hero collected $3.30 from pot
My questions here are: Is this overbet +EV in the long turn against a decent reg? Or should I have picked a smaller size on the river?
Is there something like a profitable merged overbet? I would love to here your opinions.