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77, Call on river with weak flush

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Qwetzalcoatl
Joined: 17.07.2011

Hi guys,

Do you think this is fishy or profitable?

After the c-bet on flop, I put the guy on: Ad5+, QJo+, QTs+, 33, 44, 99+, 5d6d+ Kd9+, JT. I call as I am in position and can probably win more often than not. (I am also curious what you think is c-betting here. Any thoughts?)

I don't think that the JT continues betting on turn. Against that range the pot odds are still in my favor so I believe the call is profitable.

River: the size just seems really weird to me. Why would he bet this and not smaller or bigger with completed flush? Even if I ignore the sizing and assume that he is only betting with made hands, something like Ad5+, QTo+, QTs+,Kd9+ (Qx betting as bluff) I have some 28% equity, which makes it just slightly unprofitable.

Do you think the "read" about no flush on the river is correct? Would you play the hand differently?

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 5 players

UTG: $4.38 (88 bb)
CO (Hero): $5.35 (107 bb)
BU: $6.16 (123 bb)
SB: $5.00 (100 bb)
BB: $6.34 (127 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07) Hero is CO with 7 7
UTG raises to $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, BTN calls $0.15, 2 players fold

Flop: ($0.52) 3 4 Q (3 players)
UTG bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, BU folds

Turn: ($1.12) 9 (2 players)
UTG bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

River: ($2.32) 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $1.05, Hero calls $1.05

Total pot: $4.42 (Rake: $0.18)

Spoiler

Showdown:
UTG shows Q K (a pair of Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 49%, Flop: 56%, Turn: 75%, River: 0%)

CO (Hero) shows 7 7 (a flush, Queen high)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 51%, Flop: 44%, Turn: 25%, River: 100%)

CO (Hero) wins $4.24


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5 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

If we think about a standard reg opening from UTG, he might fold A5s-A9s. He also should not have QJo in his opening range. 33,44 are probably folded pre too. Same goes with 56s and K9s. JT should be only suited hands.
Sooo from that list you think he cbets the flop with, I would say only a small part are realistic (if villain is a decent player).

OTT I would fold.

I don't think that the JT continues betting on turn. Against that range the pot odds are still in my favor so I believe the call is profitable.

Did you consider that villain could have tons of better flushes and flush draws? Even if you hit your flush, you might be losing your whole stack to a higher flush. Those are called reverse implied odds.

After UTG 3barrels here, I'm almost sure that he has a better flush.


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MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

Given the stupidity of the showdown, I would certainly not be surprised to see villain opening quite wide UTG. Well maybe not A5o though but then again who knows.
Also I'd totally be opening 44-, 56s and K9s at most NL5 tables. Am I not reg enough ? Am I the most lagish of regs ? ?(

Anyway spewy hand once again, fold at least on the turn.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Originally posted by MyFloXyBabY
Also I'd totally be opening 44-, 56s and K9s at most NL5 tables. Am I not reg enough ? Am I the most lagish of regs ? ?(

Noo you are not a regular.. Just a fish who plays a bit more often than other fishes :f_cool:
Just kidding. I can agree with opening 44 and 56s. That is a bit more loose than what I would do as standard but it doesn't mean it would be bad.. But K9s?


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MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

I know I'm a big fish but I've heard that K9s is in Snowie's ranges. I know people playing zoom midstakes that are adamant about it (and even Q9s) being more playable than 44-
What is funny about 56s is that some ranges put it on the open for board covering reasons whereas they don't advice to play 67s and 78s that they consider too dominated.


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