PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 222.2 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 16)
SB: 27.8 BB (VPIP: 38.89, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 18)
Hero (BB): 101.4 BB
UTG: 123.6 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
MP: 188.4 BB (VPIP: 44.44, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
CO: 88.4 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♣ J♦
UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB
Flop: (9.4 BB, 3 players) 2♥ 9♥ 5♠
Hero checks, UTG bets 6.8 BB, fold, Hero calls 6.8 BB
Turn: (23 BB, 2 players) 5♥
Hero checks, UTG bets 11.4 BB, Hero calls 11.4 BB
River: (45.8 BB, 2 players) 8♠
Hero checks, UTG bets 14.4 BB, Hero raises to 80.2 BB and is all-in, fold,
Turning JJ into a bluff here. My reasoning:
- Flop is 3way so his cbet is stronger than a usual cbet
- Turn bet is not very big and due to all the draws looks kind of weak/scared
- River small bet is most likely a thin value bet with TP or overpair. Since his bet size is so small I do not expect anything more than TP or Overpair here. Even if he has a boat it is most likely only 99 here.
So I think his line shows me that he is probably never bluffing on the river. This is because for a bluff he would choose a bigger size on the river at least.
So
So when he value bets, I think most value bets beat my JJ because AT or A9 would not bet again on the river (with those hands what do they want to get called by that is worse?). But I also think his value is not a monster.
My line on the other hand can easily also be a boat. I complete BB preflop, Flop xc is definitely ok with a set as well. Turn brings the boat so no need for me to scare away any worse value or bluffs from betting and it also protects my range when I want to xc turn. When I take a long time on the river before checking I could also do that with a boat trying to make max value by letting him bet again and then get it in after his bet.
