PLO2 AJT3ss ip runner flush

first you have to realize that on turn in 3bet pot spr will be somewhat around 2. that leads to several thoughts:

- a float flop is somewhat close, even if i like your gs+bdfd+bdstr8draw, because at this low spr on turn villain will be ready to broke somewhat loose
- also if you bluff turn this wont be cheap
- since he is betting smallish again on the turn I dont give him credit to be ready to broke here and therefore I think I would go for it and GII
- note that you also have a wheel gs. ugly thing is if on urn he pots you have to call making it a somewhat edgeless spot to float flop imho

single raised pot floats are much more +EV imho

Originally posted by efkay

- a float flop is somewhat close, even if i like your gs+bdfd+bdstr8draw, because at this low spr on turn villain will be ready to broke somewhat loose

I think the flop float is okay as we may outplay him with position. I would fold against pot-size probably. I think most player cbet flop and give up ott too much., they also dont balance their ranges oop in 3bp. This leads to the circumstance, their small flop cbetting range is totally out of wreck. The board is pretty light, so he could be c-betting lots of bluffs to repp the overpair (his top-pair+sv should be at least partially in his checking range), where we can steal ip once he checks turn and barrel rivers if he is capable folding overpairs. We will often have good playability on many turn-cards. When the board is light/avg we have to float more with side components. Stacked components like bd-straightdraw, bd-nfd + gs have a lot of value. It is difficult for him to have many bet-bet hands oop that are glad to stack off ott on this texture imo. Phil Galfon described that for the oop-3bettor as "we have range advantage but most part of our range is not eager to stack-off boards". The amount of sets and 2pairs are discounted and should be about equal, we are primarily worried about KK+.

since he is betting smallish again on the turn I dont give him credit to be ready to broke here and therefore I think I would go for it and GII

I totally agree. The small bet indicates weakness, he would be inclined to protect his overpairs by betting big. In my experience with the sizings villains fold-frequency ott is quite high. The 9♥: is the best card you can get, I would semi-bluff raise allin ott. With the SPR being 2 we need only 40% Equity to break-even, the shove is already auto-profit. Once you float the flop you must be prepared to sometimes make exploitative moves afterwards also on worse cards. As played I would bet the river small as an exploit to get value.

Thanks for the elaborate answers!

I just watched a video of the stream from Kyyberi (missed the live session), where he explains the hand using pokerjuice here: Kyyberi Twitch steam

He explains that it may already be a preflop fold to the 3bet.
Postflop it can be a fold to the cbet, not many turn cards that improve our hand or we can bluff villain of his 3bet range.
On the turn the standard line should be to call instead of shove, unless we have info on villain that he fold overpairs for instance, so it becomes +EV.
Final remark was to pot the turn instead, missed value!

Preflop folding I agree.

please explain how you conclude to the idea of folding AJT3s BUvsBB where BBs 3betting range is one of the widest (only SBs should be wider) and include so many BBBs and rundown hands that stick dominated flushdraws in OTF

I watched the Kyyberi's stream:

Originally posted by Timmaywin
Postflop it can be a fold to the cbet, not many turn cards that improve our hand or we can bluff villain of his 3bet range.

Did you watch his stream-vid? Kyyberi never said anything about folding at any spot postflop and he mentioned over 20 cards (half of the deck) that improve our hand ott.

About raise vs call on the turn: The best-case vs best-case assumptions Kyyberi made I think are not good. I dont think it is even close to assume, villain would stack-off 100% of his range otr when we hit on of our draws (especially not our nutflush). It is more likely he is check-calling only some part of his range otr (lower flushes, maybe). On the other hand it is way more likely he will fold a single-pair hand, and even if not, it would change our EV differently if we deviate our range assumptions. But let's stop EV-discussion, it does not make sense against a random player, I agree.

I also primarily agree in theory with the rest he said. But I would not throw all "PLO2-Players" in the same bucket, they are some group of patterns like nits, straightforward reg, overly aggro reg and so on. So it makes sense to play balanced against a complete unknown and playing balanced is much more loose and aggressive in many scenarios than I would have assumed.

Originally posted by efkay
please explain how you conclude to the idea of folding AJT3s BUvsBB where BBs 3betting range is one of the widest (only SBs should be wider) and include so many BBBs and rundown hands that stick dominated flushdraws in OTF

Because BB 3betting range is AA-heavy on PLO2. Someone who has difficulties in 3bp might fold hands like this one to avoid difficult situations or as an exploit. In Kyyberi's stream he assigned the 3bettor AAxx only first. Player on PLO2 are not 3betting wide, I think even the 8% he used secondly is too wide.

I personally would have called pre but it is an option to fold if you are new to the game.

Originally posted by Mascherano95
Did you watch his stream-vid? Kyyberi never said anything about folding at any spot postflop.

At 14:57

Originally posted by Timmaywin

Originally posted by Mascherano95
Did you watch his stream-vid? Kyyberi never said anything about folding at any spot postflop.

At 14:57

At 17:10 he refers to the sizing which changes the assumption made at 14:57.

You can fold it to play it safe, but in this instance a fold pre would be better. With the ranges assumed it would not make sense to call pre to fold the flop.

Here is the link to the video: