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Facing a river raise with a nut flush

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vaca22
Joined: 24.11.2008

IPoker, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: $21.86 (87.4 bb)
MP2: $27.41 (109.6 bb)
Hero (CO): $31.37 (125.5 bb)
BTN: $12.47 (49.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A♣: 6♣:
MP2 folds, Hero raises to $0.63, BTN folds, BB calls $0.38

Flop: ($1.26) 5♣: K♣: 4♥: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.80, BB calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.86) 4♦: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, BB calls $2

River: ($6.86) 3♣: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.57, BB raises to $16.32, Hero ??

Villain is a 60/20 fish. More on a passive side.
Is this a fold OTR? I know river raises are usually a nuts. To make a call I need 30% if I give him all the nuts: 44, 55, 43s, 45s, K4o, K4s (12 combos) and weaker FD's (QJ, QT, Q9, Q8, JT, J9 - 6 combos) I get 33%. But I am not sure he would raise so big with J/Q high FD. He could also have some random 4x and go crazy OTR.
Is this an easy fold when fish plays like this OTR?


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

You don't have the nuts on the river what the thread title suggest. Off course you only lose against a full house and against a fish that could over play flushes it's tough to lay this down. Only reasonable better hands for him would be with 44-55. 33 should fold on flop or turn and K4 would be a weird defend, but with a fish it could be possible as well.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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