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river set deep 3bet pot shove for value ?

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I wasn't to sure whether to shove this or not for value.

Villain
30 vpip 121 hands.

BTN: $9.59 (191.8 bb)
SB: $4.13 (82.6 bb)
Hero (BB): $10.37 (207.4 bb)
UTG: $7.01 (140.2 bb)
MP: $6.72 (134.4 bb)
CO: $5.14 (102.8 bb)

SB posts $0.02, Hero posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has J J
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.13, fold, Hero raises to $0.51, BTN calls $0.38

Flop: ($1.04, 2 players) T 7 A
Hero bets $0.36, BTN calls $0.36

Turn: ($1.76, 2 players) 6
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.88, Hero calls $0.88

River: ($3.52, 2 players) J
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.76, Hero ?


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3 replies
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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Flop Cbet sizing is pretty small and if you want to protect against flush draws you can better Cbet around half pot. Off course you never gets a better hand to fold. As played the turn is earlier a check/fold than a check/call. You have only 2 outs to improve and I expect he wil check behind most draws. River a shove seems decent. KQ is the only reasonable hand you lose against and I doubt he would call a 3bet and call a flop except K♣:Q♣: maybe.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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98s gets there as well and can be in villains btn range especially this deep,i'm thinking i bock AJ and AT probably doesn't call vs a shove.So i get value from worse sets and lose vs KQ and 98s,it's possible villain doesn't fold ATs but i'm not sure they call much wider than that.I like the check/call turn line on this board as well but i could be wrong.


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Casey55
Joined: 19.07.2010

I think flopped two pairs may raise the flop , isn't the reason most people IP just call the small 1/3 c-bets in a 3bet pot is because if they raise with a decent hand they are afraid to get blown off of it ? A flopped two pair or set I don't think would be afraid to raise on the flop which makes me think he had a marginal hand on the flop like weakish Ax, hands like JT, QT or a draw of some sort unless he slow playing sets and 2 pairs but board not best for that.

On the turn completes 98, he can bet with those he can bet his club draws and his nut hands like 2 pair sets and expect his Tx or weak Ax to check. River brings J completes KQ but I don't think that's much of his range it had a gut-shot on the turn and wasn't drawing to top pair unless he thought he had fold equity. This leaves him with broken clubs, 98 or two pairs and sets, I think broken clubs probably raise larger on the river as a bluff this river bet seems more weighted towards what he thinks is a value bet maybe 2-pairs, sets or 98. 4 combos of suited 98, many combos of two pairs and weaker sets. I think the question your asking has to tie in with the player type your up against, tight players may only call your all in with the nuts whereas looser players may call with more worse hands.


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