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Double GS on turn

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Tosh5457
Joined: 18.01.2008

Pacific Poker - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 110.2 BB
UTG: 184.4 BB
MP: 105.7 BB
CO: 100 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 154.3 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB, CO posts penalty blind 1.5 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 3 BB) Hero has Q♦ T♠

fold, fold, CO checks, fold, SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero raises to 6 BB, CO calls 5 BB, fold

Flop: (13.5 BB, 2 players) 4♣ 8♥ 6♥
Hero bets 7 BB, CO calls 7 BB

Turn: (27.5 BB, 2 players) 9♠
Hero checks, CO bets 11 BB, fold

Spoiler

CO wins 26.2 BB

Vs unknown. Would you cbet this flop? 2nd barrel turn? Even though I got a double GS + overcards, I think he may be calling with most of his flop calling range here, since many suited connectors like 45, 67 now have a SD and hands like T9, 97, 98 have improved.


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Neoken
Joined: 23.03.2008

A CO that posts his penalty, checks it and then calls a raise... Seems a bit fishy to me, probably unlikely to fold against a cbet on that flop. And seeing as you're OOP and there's not much to improve on, I'd probably just give up on the flop and check/fold here against any decent bet.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

It's a little bit tight, but I would just check pre-flop with QTo. It's not a great hand and I don't want to play a big pot out of position with a marginal hand like QTo and than you can just give up post-flop if you miss.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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venatici
Joined: 15.03.2010

Originally posted by SDK1987
It's a little bit tight, but I would just check pre-flop with QTo. It's not a great hand and I don't want to play a big pot out of position with a marginal hand like QTo and than you can just give up post-flop if you miss.

Cheers,
SDK1987

If Hero was IP I open much wider that usually though (of course if players behind me were tight).
I open to 5bb when OOP limper isolating, unless I know he's fit-or-fold postflop, then I open 6bb cause this gives me more $$$
Also that board is soaking to me and I do not cbet here.

As played on turn you have 8 outs for a straight + I would count a couple outs for TP - however I don't think TP is going to win often enough here, but even 3 outs is enough:
11/46 ~23,9% equity
12/46 ~26% equity
11bb to call to a pot of (27,5+11+11) = 22% needed

So counting in couple of outs for TP makes it maybe a profitable call. But I would be happier with :Qx: than :Tx:, also no :heart: would make me feel better.

Also keep in mind the rake.
23,9% * 49,5 - 11 gives you a profit of 0,83bb on average, but if your rake is at approx 5% then the final pot is in fact 47,025 and this changes result a little (but still gives a profit) to 0,238bb on average.


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