99 mid-pair vs turn c-bet on a paired board

shooshte

Joined: 23.08.2018

Posts: 158

21.04.2020, 08:24 0

No info on the villains.

PartyGaming - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 95.8 BB
Hero (SB): 195.2 BB
BB: 170.2 BB
UTG: 9.2 BB
MP: 248.6 BB
CO: 100.4 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9♥ 9♣

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.6 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9 BB, 3 players) Q♣ 7♦ Q♦
Hero checks, BB checks, CO checks

Turn: (9 BB, 3 players) 5♣
Hero checks, BB bets 7 BB, fold, Hero calls 7 BB

River: (23 BB, 2 players) 8♦
Hero checks, BB bets 33 BB, Hero calls 33 BB

Spoiler

Hero mucks 9♥ 9♣ (Two Pair, Queens and Nines)
(Pre 80%, Flop 88%, Turn 9%)
BB shows 5♦ 5♠ (Full House, Fives full of Queens)
(Pre 20%, Flop 12%, Turn 91%)
BB wins 84.6 BB

Are we ever ahed on the turn, or should I just fold in this spot? If we call the turn do we fold on the river?
Looking back at the hand since it's a 3-way pot and the board is polarized I don't think calling is profitable.

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Purity

Joined: 28.01.2008

Posts: 203

21.04.2020, 11:06 +1

As played I would definitely call the turn, there is no indication that villain has a better hand, he could be betting draws or a weaker pair.
--> Though his betsize is already on the high side on the turn , this would make me suspicious

River is an "easy" fold --> overbets are almost never a bluff

I would have bet the turn myself though, because I want to protect my hand and extract value from weaker pairs + draws.

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SDK1987

Moderator

Joined: 12.11.2008

Posts: 43,870

21.04.2020, 15:55 0

I would consider to 3bet 99 sometimes against a CO open to like 9bb, but post-flop is pretty standard as played with calling a small bet on turn and fold a huge over bet on river with only a bluff catcher. You beat only a missed :club: draw and that would be already a marginal bet on turn.

Cheers,
SDK1987

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