SB: $0.78 (39 bb)
BB: $2.43 (121.5 bb)
CO: $4.83 (241.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): $2.55 (127.5 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with T♥: 6♥:
CO folds, Hero raises to $0.04, SB folds, BB raises to $0.06, Hero calls $0.02
Flop: ($0.13) 8♦: 3♠: 7♥: (2 players)
BB bets $0.09, Hero calls $0.09
Turn: ($0.31) J♥: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.21, BB calls $0.21
River: ($0.73) 7♣: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.51,
Spoiler
BB raises to $1.02, Hero folds
Results: $1.75 pot ($0.11 rake)
Final Board: 8♦: 3♠: 7♥: J♥: 7♣:
BB mucked and won $1.64 ($0.77 net)
Hero mucked T♥: 6♥: and lost (-$0.87 net)
Question 1. What could villain's range be on the river?
Question 2. Should I bluff on the river, and what sizing?
Answer 1. Villain is a fish with 56/37/17.1 VPIP/PFR/3bet. He is not too aggro. Villain showed weakness by checking the river. I would expect T9 to bet on the turn, and 7x to bet on the river, so I should discount these holdings. His line is also consistent with 8x.
Answer 2. He will have a weak pair and air maybe 26% of the time (65o and some 3x in his range. I can't post the image of my range estimates). I feel a bet less than half pot might get called by 3x. A half pot bet will not be profitable (need a fold 33% of the time), let alone the large bet I did in this hand. Also, I will beat 16 combinations of 65o at showdown with my T high.
What did I learn?
A check-call on the turn signifies some strength, he could have just folded. I need to think more about what hands I’m making him fold, and what hands I can bet at showdown.
