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Finding leaks - huge diff btw. saw-flop and NOT saw-flop

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monteCarlol
Joined: 24.08.2019

Hi,

I looked into some very basic heuristics to find leaks:

- Calling too frequently pre-flop
- Inability to fold post-flop
- Playing OOP too often

These are anyway all fish plays and I didn't expect much to find here.

However while looking into position at the flop, I found out the following (all 6max NL Holdem):

When saw the flop (900 hands):
BB/100: 90

When NOT saw flop (4.4k hands):
BB/100: -15

When saw showdown (230 hands):
BB/100: 440

All (5.3k hands):
BB/100: 3
VP: 17.5
PFR: 13
3betPF: 3.3
F3bet: 80

I know these is a very small sample size, but do you see anything that is worth while looking into more?
I was puzzled by the big difference between pre-flop and post-flop.

Is this normal?

Btw. am I too nitty?

Any pointers? Thanks! πŸ™


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VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Hi monteCarlol,
This looks pretty good to me actually.

Don't forget that "not saw flop" includes a lot of folded blinds.
If you never defend your blinds you 100 bb/100 in the BB and 50 bb/100 in the SB,
If you combine them, that means -75 bb/100 -- and you're only showing -15 bb/100
So you're 50 bb/100 ahead of doing nothing.

Consider that when you do play from the blinds those numbers get included in the "saw flop" category.

Perhaps run a report showing various stats by position.

Cheers,
VS


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ColorFlusher
Joined: 19.01.2008

Hey monteCarlol!

We are playing a different game, but I looked into my stats and found out interesting similarities.

Our bb/100 is the same when saw the flop (90, 94), and when not seeing the flop (-15, -14). But because you are playing tighter pre-flop, you should win more post-flop per hand to balance out the difference in overall bb/100 compared to mine.

The big difference is that you are winning 440 bb/100 at showdown when I'm winning only 222. It means that your range on showdown is a lot stronger than mine. At the same time we are still supposed to win post-flop the same per hand as our flop bb/100 are the same. So our playing styles have to differ a lot. In this case, the difference most likely implies that there could be more opportunities for you to win before showdown. Maybe you are playing some draws too passive and end up getting them to showdown only when you hit, and instead of getting your opponents to fold their mediocre hands, you are often the one to fold? Maybe you are folding some made hands too light when you could call them (that would still make you profit, but less per hand than you currently do)? High showdown bb/100 could also mean that there's room for more hands to be played profitable pre-flop.

I'm not an holdem expert, so can't really help you more than that _grin:


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monteCarlol
Joined: 24.08.2019

Originally posted by ColorFlusher
Hey monteCarlol!

We are playing a different game, but I looked into my stats and found out interesting similarities.

Our bb/100 is the same when saw the flop (90, 94), and when not seeing the flop (-15, -14). But because you are playing tighter pre-flop, you should win more post-flop per hand to balance out the difference in overall bb/100 compared to mine.

The big difference is that you are winning 440 bb/100 at showdown when I'm winning only 222. It means that your range on showdown is a lot stronger than mine. At the same time we are still supposed to win post-flop the same per hand as our flop bb/100 are the same. So our playing styles have to differ a lot. In this case, the difference most likely implies that there could be more opportunities for you to win before showdown. Maybe you are playing some draws too passive and end up getting them to showdown only when you hit, and instead of getting your opponents to fold their mediocre hands, you are often the one to fold? Maybe you are folding some made hands too light when you could call them (that would still make you profit, but less per hand than you currently do)? High showdown bb/100 could also mean that there's room for more hands to be played profitable pre-flop.

I'm not an holdem expert, so can't really help you more than that _grin:

Hi ColorFlusher,

I think you are 100% right with your analysis. I do lead OTF with good draws, but if villains do not fold and I do not hit, I usually give it up OTT.
I also usually do not cbet OTT.
Maybe there is room for improvement here, I will keep an eye on this.

Thanks!


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